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2018 Colorado gubernatorial election

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For related races, see 2018 United States gubernatorial elections.

2018 Colorado gubernatorial election
← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
 
Nominee Jared Polis Walker Stapleton
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Dianne Primavera Lang Sias
Popular vote 1,348,888 1,080,801
Percentage 53.42% 42.80%
Polis:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Stapleton:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      No votes
Governor before election

John Hickenlooper
Democratic

Elected Governor

Jared Polis
Democratic

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The 2018 Colorado gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Colorado. Incumbent Democratic governor John Hickenlooper was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. The primary election was held on June 26.[1]

The major party nominees were Democratic U.S. Representative Jared Polis and Republican State Treasurer Walker Stapleton. The general election took place on November 6, 2018, with Polis winning by 268,000 votes.[2][3] This was the first Colorado gubernatorial election in which both major party candidates received over one million votes.

Polis's victory marked the fourth straight election in which Colorado elected a Democratic governor and the first time in American electoral history that an openly gay politician was elected governor of a state.

Democratic primary

[edit]

With Hickenlooper ineligible to run for a third term in office, multiple Democratic politicians vied for the party's nomination for governor. Prior to his resignation in 2015, former lieutenant governor Joseph Garcia was seen as a probable candidate for governor in 2018.[4]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated in the primary

[edit]

Eliminated at the convention

[edit]
  • Erik Underwood, former congressional aide, Republican candidate for GA-10 in 2007 and Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Caucus results

[edit]

On March 6, 2018, Democrats of precincts across Colorado met and voted how many delegates each candidate who was caucusing on the ballot would get. As of March 11, 2018 at 7:30 p.m., 96.83% of precincts had reported and added up to the below results.[25]

  • Cary Kennedy (11,700; 49.2%)
  • Jared Polis (7,784; 32.7%)
  • Mike Johnston (2,086; 8.8%)
  • Noel Ginsburg (433; 1.8%), dropped out of race
  • Erik Underwood (100; 0.4%)
  • Uncommitted (1,668; 7%)

Endorsements

[edit]
Jared Polis
Organizations
  • Colorado Professional Firefighters (CPFF)
  • Humane Society
  • IBEW Colorado – International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
  • National Cannabis Industry Association
  • National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML)
  • Pipefitters Local 208
  • Sierra Club
  • Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters
  • Victory Fund
Federal officials
State Senators
State Representatives
County Commissioners
Mayors
City Councilors
Others
Mike Johnston
Federal officials
State officials
Local officials
  • Gabrielle Aragon, former San Luis Council member
  • Albus Brooks, Denver City Council President
  • Lisa Flores, Denver Public School Board of Education member
  • Tracy Johnson, Academy District 20 Board of Education member
  • Jeanne McQueeney, Eagle County Commissioner[31]
  • Theresa Peña, formerDenver Public Schools Board of Education member[32]
  • Christina Rinderle, former Durango Mayor
  • Wellington Webb, former Mayor of Denver[30]
Organizations
  • Students for Education Reform[33]
Newspapers
Individuals
Cary Kennedy
Federal officials
State officials
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Donna Lynne
State legislators
  • Janet Buckner, State Representative
  • Jean Dubofsky, former state Supreme Court Justice
  • JoAnn Ginal, State Representative
  • Lucia Guzman, State Senator
Local officials
  • Leanna Clark, vice chancellor for the University of Colorado Denver
  • Kathy Maloney Green, Gov. John Hickenlooper’s former spokeswoman
  • Jacque Montgomery, Gov. John Hickenlooper’s spokeswoman
  • Marguerite Salazar, Colorado Department of Regulatory Agencies executive director
  • Tamra Ward, Denver Zoo chief external relations officer
Ed Perlmutter (withdrawn)

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Johnston 		Cary
Kennedy 		Donna
Lynne 		Jared
Polis 		Other Undecided
Strategies 360 May 29 – June 6, 2018 387 ± 5.0% 12% 23% 2% 34% – 29%
Magellan Strategies (R) May 30–31, 2018 503 ± 4.4% 9% 18% 3% 31% – 39%
TargetPoint/GQR March 2018 – – – 18% – 18% 12% 52%
Magellan Strategies (R) March 20–23, 2018 410 ± 4.8% 8% 23% 5% 27% 1% 36%
University of Colorado Boulder November 9–15, 2017 357 ± 3.5% 4% 6% 4% 24% 2%[43] 58%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Polis
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Kennedy
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Johnston
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Democratic primary results[44]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jared Polis 282,725 44.46
Democratic Cary Kennedy 157,098 24.71
Democratic Mike Johnston 149,717 23.55
Democratic Donna Lynne 46,316 7.28
Total votes 635,856 100.0

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated in the primary

[edit]

Eliminated at the convention

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Caucus results

[edit]

Based on information shared by some key counties, as well as a recent survey, the following are believed to be results of the Republican Caucus from key counties.[66]

Pueblo County

Douglas County

Endorsements

[edit]
George Brauchler (withdrawn)
Individuals
Tom Tancredo (withdrawn)
Political Commentators

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Cynthia
Coffman 		Greg
Lopez 		Victor
Mitchell 		Doug
Robinson 		Walker
Stapleton 		Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies (R) June 6–7, 2018 593 ± 4.0% – 10% 23% 4% 36% – 27%
TargetPoint/GQR March 2018 – – 7% – – – 15% 16% 62%
Magellan Strategies (R) February 26–27, 2018 647 ± 3.9% 13% – 5% 8% 26% 9% 39%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		George
Brauchler 		Cynthia
Coffman 		Victor
Mitchell 		Doug
Robinson 		Walker
Stapleton 		Tom
Tancredo 		Undecided
University of Colorado Boulder November 9–15, 2017 250 ± 3.5% 4% 6% 1% 1% 8% 25% 54%
Braynard Group (R) September 26–28, 2017 400 ± 3.2% 7% 6% 1% 0.3% 8.5% 22% 54%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Stapleton
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Mitchell
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results[44]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Walker Stapleton 239,415 47.66
Republican Victor Mitchell 151,365 30.13
Republican Greg Lopez 66,330 13.20
Republican Doug Robinson 45,245 9.01
Total votes 502,355 100.0

Third party and independent candidates

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Debates

[edit]
Dates Location Polis Stapleton Link
October 6, 2018 Grand Junction, Colorado Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[74] Lean D October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[75] Lean D November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[76] Likely D November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[77] Lean D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[78] Lean D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[79] Lean D November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[80] Lean D November 5, 2018
Fox News[81][a] Lean D November 5, 2018
Politico[82] Lean D November 5, 2018
Governing[83] Lean D November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.

Endorsements

[edit]
Jared Polis (D)
Organizations
  • Colorado Professional Firefighters (CPFF)
  • Humane Society
  • IBEW Colorado, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
  • National Cannabis Industry Association
  • National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML)
  • Pipefitters Local 208
  • Sierra Club
  • Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters
  • Victory Fund
Federal officials
State officials
State Senators
State Representatives
County Commissioners
Mayors
City Councilors
Others
Walker Stapleton (R)
Presidents of the United States
Vice Presidents of the United States
Federal officials
State officials
State Senators
State Representatives
Local officials
Mayors
District attorneys
  • Brett Barkey (14th Judicial District)[115]
  • Jim Bullock (16th Judicial District)[115]
  • Jeff Cheney (9th Judicial District)[115]
  • Molly Chilson (11th Judicial District)[115]
  • Brittny Lewton (13th Judicial District)[115]
  • Dan May (4th Judicial District)[115]
  • Cliff Riedel (8th Judicial District)[115]
  • Michael J. Rourke (19th Judicial District)[115]
  • Dan Rubinstein (21st Judicial District)[115]
  • Josh Vogel (15th Judicial District)[115]
  • Pete Weir (1st Judicial District)[115]
Sheriffs
Others
  • Doug Robinson, businessman[116]
  • Nick Rogers, president of the Denver Police Protective Association[115]
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jared
Polis
(D) 		Walker
Stapleton
(R) 		Scott
Helker
(L) 		Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies October 29–30, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 45% 40% 3% 1%[127] 11%
Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Martin Campaigns October 25–30, 2018 517 ± 4.3% 50% 42% 4% 1%[127] 4%
University of Colorado/YouGov October 12–17, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 54% 42% 3% – 2%
Magellan Strategies October 8–10, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 47% 40% 4% 0%[128] 9%
Keating Research/Magellan Strategies September 18–20, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 47% 40% 1% 0%[128] 11%
Kaiser Family Foundation/CO Health Foundation/SSRS August 15 – September 19, 2018 1,585 – 44% 33% – – 21%
Public Policy Polling (D-CO Democratic Party) June 27–28, 2018 608 – 47% 40% – – 13%
Strategies 360 May 29 – June 6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 42% 37% – 3% 18%
Hypothetical polling
with Cary Kennedy
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Cary
Kennedy (D) 		Walker
Stapleton (R) 		Other Undecided
Strategies 360 May 23 – June 6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 43% 38% 4% 15%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Democrat 		Generic
Republican 		Undecided
Clarity Campaign Labs (D-DAGA)[permanent dead link] May 8–10, 2018 883 ± 3.3% 52% 37% 11%
with Tom Tancredo
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jared
Polis (D) 		Tom
Tancredo (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis) December 4–5, 2017 770 ± 3.5% 46% 38% – 16%
Braynard Group (R) September 26–28, 2017 1,000 ± 3.2% 25% 25% 3% 47%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Cary
Kennedy (D) 		Tom
Tancredo (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis) December 4–5, 2017 770 ± 3.5% 45% 38% – 17%
Keating Research (D) November 9–13, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 50% 34% 3% 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Johnston (D) 		Tom
Tancredo (R) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis) December 4–5, 2017 770 ± 3.5% 43% 39% 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Donna
Lynne (D) 		Tom
Tancredo (R) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis) December 4–5, 2017 770 ± 3.5% 43% 38% 19%

Results

[edit]
2018 Colorado gubernatorial election[129]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jared Polis 1,348,888 53.42% +4.12%
Republican Walker Stapleton 1,080,801 42.80% −3.15%
Libertarian Scott Helker 69,519 2.75% +0.81%
Unity Bill Hammons 25,854 1.02% —
Majority 268,087 10.62% +7.27%
Turnout 2,525,062
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Polis won 4 of 7 congressional districts.[130]

District Stapleton Polis Representative
1st 23.7% 73.05% Diana DeGette
2nd 34.48% 66.42% Joe Neguse
3rd 49.96% 46.26% Scott Tipton
4th 57.67% 38.11% Ken Buck
5th 56.64% 38.97% Doug Lamborn
6th 42.36% 54.29% Jason Crow
7th 38.38% 57.03% Ed Perlmutter

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "2018 election calendar". Colorado Secretary of State. State of Colorado. Retrieved May 23, 2018.
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  84. ^ @PolisForCO (June 29, 2018). ""Jared Polis will be a fantastic governor for the state of Colorado and I'm proud to endorse him. As an entrepreneu…" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  85. ^ @PolisForCO (July 1, 2018). ""Healthcare. Environment & wilderness. All of the issues we care about…That's why we're here…It's about having a go…" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  86. ^ Barack Obama [@BarackObama] (August 1, 2018). "Today I'm proud to endorse such a wide and impressive array of Democratic candidates – leaders as diverse, patriotic, and big-hearted as the America they're running to represent" (Tweet). Retrieved August 1, 2018 – via Twitter.
  87. ^ @Ed4Colorado (June 29, 2018). "Let's get to work electing @jaredpolis as our next Governor!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  88. ^ @PolisForCO (July 1, 2018). ""We need to make sure that we come together as an inclusive Colorado: Democrats, Independents, Republicans, rural,…" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  89. ^ Thomas, Ken (October 9, 2018). "Sanders barnstorming country ahead of midterm elections". Associated Press. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  90. ^ @Hickenlooper (June 30, 2018). "Heck of a way to start the day after a long hard week of US news. Rallying with CO's next governor... Jared Polis!…" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  91. ^ @DonnaLynneCO (June 27, 2018). "I want to offer my sincere congratulations to Jared Polis on his victory last night. We have had a hard fought race…" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  92. ^ @MikeJohnstonCO (June 27, 2018). "Jared Polis is an entrepreneur for good. He has earned my respect and support. With tonight's results, I hope you w…" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  93. ^ @crisantaduran (June 29, 2018). "Honored to stand w/ the next Governor of CO, @jaredpolis! Our state needs a leader w/ bold ideas who will deliver r…" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  94. ^ @AlecGarnett (June 29, 2018). "We're all behind you @jaredpolis! #copolitics #coleg @Dan_Pabon @RepPerlmutter @GovofCO @KenSalazar @crisantaduran…" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  95. ^ "Jonathan Singer for House District 11". Facebook. Archived from the original on December 3, 2018. Retrieved June 27, 2018.
  96. ^ @PolisForCO (June 30, 2018). ""As mayor of Denver, Colorado, I am proud to stand up with most Coloradans who believe that Colorado is heading in…" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  97. ^ @JonMurray (September 4, 2018). "This morning @CaryKennedy is on the stump for @jaredpolis campaign for #cogov. With other Dems and activists, talki…" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  98. ^ @jaredpolis (June 27, 2018). "Thank you for all the amazing congratulatory tweets! Onwards to November! Here's my favorite text I got tonight fro…" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  99. ^ Weiser, Phil [@pweiser] (July 3, 2018). "This is leadership. I look forward to working with @jaredpolis to develop innovative solutions to improve health care for all Coloradans" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  100. ^ @GeorgeHWBush (June 27, 2018). "Happy to congratulate @WalkerStapleton on a terrific primary victory last night, and to join him in thanking those…" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  101. ^ Frank, John (February 14, 2018). "George W. Bush to headline Texas fundraiser for his cousin, Colorado's Walker Stapleton". The Denver Post. Retrieved February 16, 2018.
  102. ^ Donald Trump. "Walker Stapleton is running as the highly respected Republican Candidate for Governor of the Great State of Colorado. His credentials and talents are impeccable. He has my complete and total Endorsement!". Twitter. Archived from the original on October 10, 2018.
  103. ^ Joe St. George (October 19, 2018). "Vice President Pence speaks on Stapleton, missing journalist during Denver visit". Fox 31.
  104. ^ Joe St. George (April 12, 2018). "Congressman Ken Buck endorses Walker Stapleton in governor's race". kdvr.com.
  105. ^ "Congressman Mike Coffman Supports Walker Stapleton". Stapleton for Colorado. Archived from the original on June 29, 2018. Retrieved June 29, 2018.
  106. ^ "Senator Cory Gardner Endorses Walker Stapleton". Stapleton for Colorado. Archived from the original on June 29, 2018. Retrieved June 29, 2018.
  107. ^ "COLORADO CONGRESSIONAL REPUBLICANS STAND UNITED BEHIND STAPLETON-SIAS TICKET". Stapleton for Colorado. Archived from the original on July 13, 2018. Retrieved July 13, 2018.
  108. ^ Luning, Ernest (April 11, 2018). "Tancredo endorses Stapleton in governor's race". Colorado Politics.
  109. ^ "Congressman Scott Tipton Endorses Walker Stapleton". Stapleton for Colorado. Archived from the original on June 29, 2018. Retrieved June 29, 2018.
  110. ^ @JebBush (August 31, 2018). "Check out @WalkerStapleton's education agenda for Colorado #edreform" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  111. ^ a b "Colorado Republican Leaders Grantham and Neville Back Walker Stapleton". Stapleton for Colorado. Archived from the original on June 29, 2018. Retrieved June 29, 2018.
  112. ^ "Victor Mitchell Puts Support Behind Walker Stapleton". KCNC-TV.
  113. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be Luning, Ernst (March 5, 2018). "More than 50 county commissioners endorse Republican gubernatorial candidate Walker Stapleton". Colorado Politics. Retrieved March 27, 2018.
  114. ^ @cologop (June 28, 2018). "Victor Mitchell, Greg Lopez, and Doug Robinson gave Walker Stapleton their unequivocal support in Arapahoe County t…" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  115. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad "Stapleton wins endorsements from Republican district attorneys, sheriffs". Colorado Springs Gazette. June 11, 2018.
  116. ^ @cologop (June 28, 2018). "In Arapahoe County, Doug Robinson offered ⁦@WalkerStapleton⁩ not only his unqualified support but a max contributio…" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  117. ^ Luning, Ernst (February 13, 2018). "Associated Builders and Contractors endorses Republican Walker Stapleton for governor". Colorado Politics. Retrieved February 13, 2018.
  118. ^ "AFP-Colorado Endorses Walker Stapleton for Governor". Americans for Prosperity. September 12, 2018.
  119. ^ Bunch, Joey (October 11, 2018). "Colorado auto dealers make first-ever endorsement: Walker Stapleton". Colorado Politics.
  120. ^ Bunch, Joey (October 3, 2018). "Colorado Farm Bureau endorses Stapleton for governor". Colorado Politics.
  121. ^ "NFIB Endorses Stapleton for Governor". NFIB. October 9, 2018.
  122. ^ "EDITORIAL: Gazette election endorsements 2018: Candidates". Colorado Springs Gazette. October 14, 2018.
  123. ^ "Our endorsements". Durango Herald. October 15, 2018. Archived from the original on October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 16, 2018.
  124. ^ "Walker Stapleton for governor". Grand Junction Daily Sentinel. October 21, 2018.
  125. ^ "Tribune Endorsement: Walker Stapleton is our pick for governor, but he must learn from office's current occupant". The Greeley Tribune. October 21, 2018.
  126. ^ "Vote Stapleton for governor". Pueblo Chieftain. October 14, 2018.
  127. ^ a b Bill Hammons (U) with 1%
  128. ^ a b Bill Hammons (U) with 0%
  129. ^ Williams, Wayne W. (December 6, 2018). Statewide Abstract of Votes Cast for the November 6, 2018 General Election (PDF). Denver, Colorado: Colorado Secretary of State.
  130. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts".
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Official campaign websites
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