Megatrend
Megatrends are trends that have an effect on a global scale. Some of the current megatrends relate to global threats.[1][2]
A megatrend strongly influences different spheres of life in many countries and at different levels, covering political, economic, natural environmental, social, and cultural dimensions.[3] A megatrend is different than a shortlived product or consumer trend.
John Naisbitt was a pioneer of future studies. His book “Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives” was first published in 1982. It focused mainly on the United States but also attempted to present a global outlook. Naisbitt accurately predicted the change from industrialized to information societies.[4]
A growing number of research institutions, international organizations, and think tanks are reflecting on megatrends with the purpose of engaging in dialogue and influence policymaking and investments.
Kuhn & Margellos[3] proposed a framework to identify and prioritize megatrends which focuses on five criteria relating to the relevance of trends. The five key criteria are the following:
- Research and, particularly, research coverage of the trend by researchers and analysts from different disciplinary background in different countries and regions.
- Level of political attention for the trend in a significant number of countries and regions.
- Significant interest from global investors. This acknowledges that investments have great potential to promote trends.
- Media coverage of the trend. This refers to traditional media and social media.
- Strength of social movements and advocacy actions related to the trend. These factors represent different spheres of societies: scientific and research, state, and government institutions; financial and business sectors; media; and civil society.
Kuhn & Margellos interviewed researchers and experts from more than 30 countries to prioritize megatrends resulting in the following megatrends:
- Climate Action and Sustainability
- Digitalization
- Inequality
- Demography
- Urbanization and Smart Cities
- Health and Nutrition
- Green Economy
- Sustainable Finance
- Multipolar World Order and the Future of Multilateralism
- Democracy and Governance Innovations
- Civilizational Developments: Diversity, Individualization and Loneliness, Gender Shift, and Identity Politics
- Migration.
However, it is important to note that the identification and analysis of megatrends rely on the disciplinary and professional perspectives of researchers and experts, as well as the specific country or region upon which their analysis is focused.
Economic implications
[edit]Economically, megatrends can be exploited by enterprises to make profit. At least 7 megatrends have been identified by multinational investment and professional services companies:[5][6][7]
- Technological progress, esp. in the internet domain[8]
- Demographic change and social change[9]
- Rapid global urbanization[10]
- Climate change and resource depletion[11]
- Emerging markets[12]
- The impact of deepfakes and other synthetic media[7]
- Microbiomes and synthetic biology[7]
References
[edit]- ^ "Five of the world's biggest environmental problems - 11.10.2016". DW.COM. Retrieved July 27, 2020.
- ^ "AlternAtive Worlds" (PDF). Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
- ^ a b Kuhn, Subin (2022-05-17). Global Perspectives on Megatrends. doi:10.24216/9783838215631. ISBN 978-3-8382-7563-5. Retrieved 2024-10-07.
- ^ Naisbitt, John (1982). Megatrends: ten new directions transforming our lives. New York: Warner Books. ISBN 978-0-446-51251-0.
- ^ "Invest in the future with megatrends - BlackRock". BlackRock. December 31, 2019. Retrieved July 27, 2020.
- ^ PricewaterhouseCoopers (November 22, 2016). "Five Megatrends And Their Implications for Global Defense & Security". PwC. Retrieved July 27, 2020. pdf
- ^ a b c Ernst & Young (June 19, 2020). "Are you reframing your future or is the future reframing you?". EY. Retrieved August 23, 2020. pdf
- ^ "Number of Connected IoT Devices Will Surge to 125 Billion by 2030, IHS Markit Says". IHS Markit Online Newsroom. October 24, 2017. Retrieved July 27, 2020.
- ^ "World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Multimedia Library". United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. June 21, 2017. Retrieved July 27, 2020.
- ^ "World Urbanization Prospects - United Nations". Population Division. May 16, 2018. Retrieved July 27, 2020.
- ^ "New Energy Outlook" (PDF). Bloomberg. 2017.
- ^ "The Long View How will the global economic order change by 2050" (PDF). PWC. 2017.