2024 Conservative Party leadership election (UK)
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A Conservative Party leadership election is expected to occur in 2024 to determine the successor to former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak following his declared intention to resign after the party's landslide defeat at the 2024 general election.
Background
[edit]Sunak was elected unopposed in October 2022 as party leader following the resignation of Liz Truss as Conservative leader, becoming Prime Minister on 25 October 2022. Sunak called a general election on 4 July 2024, which resulted in the landslide victory of the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer. Subsequently, Sunak said in his final speech as Prime Minister that he would resign as leader of the party, but not immediately, staying on as leader as preparations are made to elect his successor.[1]
Campaign
[edit]In July, multiple reports suggested that Danny Kruger and John Hayes, prominent MPs on the right of the party, are planning to support the prospective leadership candidate Robert Jenrick. Both Kruger and Hayes previously campaigned for Suella Braverman in her bid to succeed Boris Johnson in 2022.[2][3][4] The i reported that following Braverman's controversial speeches regarding the pride flag, multiple Conservative MPs believed she had lost her support among her colleagues and could defect to Reform UK.[5] Sources in both parties suggested Braverman was expected to defect, potentially following the Conservative leadership election.[6]
Schedule
[edit]The elected chair of the 1922 committee, Bob Blackman, suggested prior to the election that the party must take its time in choosing a leader.[7] Following the election, he said that he expected Sunak would not be the leader by the Conservative Party Conference, which is being held at the end of September.[8]
Candidates
[edit]In June 2024, during the campaign for the 2024 general election, The Guardian reported that leadership hopefuls were already lobbying for support from MP candidates for any upcoming leadership election.[9] The Times also reported that both Penny Mordaunt and Kemi Badenoch registered website domains for a leadership campaign. As Mordaunt lost her seat in the general election her prospective campaign is moot barring either a change in the party's constitution or re-entering the House of Commons through a by-election; both are considered unlikely.[10] The Conservative Party constitution states that the leader of the party must be a Member of Parliament.[11]
Rules for the election will be set by the 1922 Committee; all previous leadership elections have involved a series of votes by Conservative MPs, and some have included a runoff between the top two candidates voted on by party members.
Expected to declare
[edit]The following displays all the candidates who are sourced as soon to mount a leadership campaign.
Candidate | Constituency | Current office | Former offices | Ref. |
---|---|---|---|---|
Priti Patel |
Witham (2010–present) | N/A | Home Secretary (2019–2022) International Development Secretary (2016–2017) |
[12] |
Tom Tugendhat |
Tonbridge (2024–present), formerly Tonbridge and Malling (2015–2024) | Shadow Minister for Security (2024–present) | Minister of State for Security (2022–2024) Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee (2017–2022) |
[13][14] |
Likely candidates
[edit]The following displays all the candidates who are sourced as likely to mount a leadership campaign.
Candidate | Constituency | Current office | Former offices | Ref. |
---|---|---|---|---|
Victoria Atkins |
Louth and Horncastle (2015–present) | Shadow Health Secretary (2024–present) | Health Secretary (2023–2024) | [15][16] |
Kemi Badenoch |
North West Essex (2024–present), formerly Saffron Walden (2017–2024) | Shadow Housing and Communities Secretary (2024–present) | Business Secretary (2023–2024) Minister for Women and Equalities (2022–2024) International Trade Secretary (2022–2023) |
[17] |
Suella Braverman |
Fareham and Waterlooville (2024–present), formerly Fareham (2015–2024) | N/A | Home Secretary (2022, 2022–2023) Attorney General (2020–2022) |
[16][17] |
Robert Jenrick |
Newark (2014–present) | N/A | Minister of State for Immigration (2022–2023) Housing and Communities Secretary (2019–2021) |
[16][17] |
Other potential candidates who are sitting MPs
[edit]Candidate | Constituency | Current office | Former offices | Ref. |
---|---|---|---|---|
James Cleverly |
Braintree (2015–present) | Shadow Home Secretary (2024–present) | Home Secretary (2023–2024) Foreign Secretary (2022–2023) Education Secretary (2022) Party Chair (2019–2020) |
[11][15][18] |
Iain Duncan Smith |
Chingford and Woodford Green (1997–present), formerly Chingford (1992–1997) | N/A | Work and Pensions Secretary (2010–2016) Leader of the Conservative Party (2001–2003) |
[19] |
Mel Stride |
Central Devon (2010–present) | Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary (2024–present) | Work and Pensions Secretary (2022–2024) Leader of the House of Commons (2019) |
[20] |
Laura Trott |
Sevenoaks (2019–present) | Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury (2024–present) | Chief Secretary to the Treasury (2023–2024) Parliamentary Undersecretary of State for Pensions (2023) |
[21] |
Potential candidates prior to the election
[edit]The following figures lost their seats in the 2024 general election and are ineligible, but were discussed as potential candidates prior to results.
- Steve Baker, Minister of State for Northern Ireland (2022–2024), MP for Wycombe (2010–2024)[22]
- Penny Mordaunt, Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons (2022–2024), MP for Portsmouth North (2010–2024)[10]
- Grant Shapps, Secretary of State for Defence (2023–2024), MP for Welwyn Hatfield (2005–2024)[23]
Declined
[edit]The following Conservative Party politicians were suggested by commentators as potential candidates for the leadership but declined to stand:
- Jeremy Hunt, Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer (2024–present), Chancellor of the Exchequer (2022–2024), Foreign Secretary (2018–2019), MP for Godalming and Ash (2024–present, formerly South West Surrey, 2005–2024)[17][24]
Endorsements
[edit]Former MPs
[edit]Tom Tugendhat
[edit]- Steve Baker, former MP for Wycombe (2010-2024) and former minister[25]
- Damian Green, former MP for Ashford (1997-2024) and former cabinet minister[25]
Opinion polling
[edit]Conservative party members
[edit]- Multi-candidate polling
Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Kemi Badenoch |
Jeremy Hunt |
Suella Braverman |
Tom Tugendhat | Robert Jenrick | James Cleverly | Priti Patel | Victoria Atkins | Esther McVey | Others | Don't know |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10–11 July 2024 | Conservative Home[a] | N/A | 995 | 26% | – | 10% | 13% | 13% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 7% | 16% |
July 2024 | YouGov[b] | QMUL and Sussex University | 725 | 31% | 12% | 16% | 15% | 7% | 10% | 6% | 2% | – | – | – |
- Head-to-head
Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Kemi Badenoch |
Suella Braverman |
Tom Tugendhat | Robert Jenrick | Priti Patel | James Cleverly | Don't know | Wouldn't vote |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
23–30 June | JL Partners | GB News | 502 | 31% | 35% | — | — | — | — | 14% | 20% |
30% | — | 30% | — | — | — | 20% | 20% | ||||
34% | — | — | 24% | — | — | 20% | 22% | ||||
— | 37% | 31% | — | — | — | 15% | 17% | ||||
— | 39% | — | — | — | 34% | 12% | 15% | ||||
— | — | 31% | 25% | — | — | 25% | 19% | ||||
— | — | — | 29% | 35% | — | 16% | 20% |
2019 Conservative voters
[edit]- Multi-candidate polling
Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Penny Mordaunt |
Jeremy Hunt |
Suella Braverman |
Jacob Rees-Mogg |
Kemi Badenoch |
Grant Shapps |
Others | None | Don't know |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13–20 June 2024 | Deltapoll | Helm Partners | 1,511 | 25% | 13% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 3% | — | 19% | 20% |
General public
[edit]- Multi-candidate polling
Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Suella Braverman |
Tom Tugendhat |
Kemi Badenoch |
Priti Patel |
Robert Jenrick |
Don't know |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
21–25 June 2024 | JL Partners | GB News | 8,030 | 10% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 61% |
References
[edit]- ^ "'I am sorry' - Sunak's No 10 speech in full". BBC News. 5 July 2024.
- ^ Mitchell, Archie (8 July 2024). "Suella Braverman's Tory leadership bid 'dead before it starts' as key ally expected to back rival". The Independent.
- ^ Hymas, Charles (7 July 2024). "Suella Braverman's Tory leadership campaign dealt blow as key ally abandons her". The Telegraph.
- ^ Vaughan, Richard (10 July 2024). "Ex-Braverman ally Robert Jenrick's Tory leader hopes rising after her bid implodes". i. Retrieved 10 July 2024.
- ^ Langford, Richard Vaughan, Kitty Donaldson, Eleanor (11 July 2024). "'She's lost all her mates': Braverman could defect to Reform, Tory MPs believe". inews.co.uk. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ Vaughan, Kitty Donaldson, Hugo Gye and Richard (19 July 2024). "Suella Braverman expected to defect to Reform as Tory leadership race heats up". inews.co.uk. Retrieved 19 July 2024.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ "Full house for Rishi's return". POLITICO. 9 July 2024. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
- ^ Heale, James (11 July 2024). "Sunak apologises to Tory MPs for election mess". The Spectator. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
- ^ Stacey, Kiran; Mason, Rowena (14 June 2024). "Tory leadership hopefuls 'already lobbying' to replace Sunak". The Guardian. Retrieved 27 June 2024.
- ^ a b Kendix, Max; Scott, Geraldine (30 June 2024). "Leadership campaign websites registered for senior Tories". www.thetimes.com. Retrieved 30 June 2024.
- ^ a b Rayner, Gordon (26 June 2024). "The runners and riders to replace Rishi Sunak". The Telegraph. Retrieved 27 June 2024.
- ^ Rayner, Gordon (16 July 2024). "Priti Patel to run for Tory leadership". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 16 July 2024.
- ^ Riley-Smith, Ben (18 June 2024). "Tom Tugendhat expected to run for Tory leader after election". The Telegraph. Retrieved 27 June 2024.
- ^ Penna, Dominic (16 July 2024). "Tom Tugendhat to announce Tory leadership bid 'within weeks'". The Telegraph. Retrieved 16 July 2024.
- ^ a b "Tory leadership hopefuls jostle to replace Rishi Sunak". Financial Times. Retrieved 27 June 2024.
- ^ a b c "Tory rivals battle to set narrative of party's historic defeat". Financial Times. Retrieved 7 July 2024.
- ^ a b c d Riley-Smith, Ben (5 July 2024). "Tory leadership contenders split over Nigel Farage". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
- ^ Allegretti, Aubrey; Dathan, Matt; Smyth, Chris (27 June 2024). "Who could replace Rishi Sunak? The potential Tory successors". The Times. Retrieved 27 June 2024.
- ^ Penna, Dominic (11 July 2024). "Make Duncan Smith interim Tory leader, urges peer". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
- ^ Penna, Dominic (18 June 2024). "Mel Stride tipped for Tory leadership by MPs". The Telegraph. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
- ^ Penna, Dominic (18 June 2024). "Mel Stride tipped for Tory leadership by MPs". The Telegraph. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
- ^ "Unhappy NI minister Steve Baker will bid to replace Rishi Sunak as PM if election is a disaster for Tories". Belfast Telegraph. 27 June 2024. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
- ^ Courea, Eleni; Mason, Rowena (5 July 2024). "Tory leadership contenders prepare for quick contest amid Reform fears". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077.
- ^ Manancourt, Vincent (6 July 2024). "Jeremy Hunt rules himself out of Tory leadership race". Politico. Retrieved 6 July 2024.
- ^ a b Gutteridge, Nick (19 July 2024). "Damian Green and Steve Baker back Tom Tugendhat for Tory leadership". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 19 July 2024.