Talk:2006–07 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/November

November

Week 1

98S.INVEST

An Indian Ocean INVEST... 6.7S 63.3E. Réunion not concerned yet. – Ch acor 13:27, 4 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

now at 8.3S 54.6E.--Ugaap 09:35, 5 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC not concerned with development anymore. -- グリフオーザー 18:21, 7 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone from NRL, still on FNMOC. --Core des at 02:46, 8 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Week 2

99P.INVEST

7.5ºS 152.9ºE -- グリフオーザー 19:44, 4 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC not concerned with development anymore. -- グリフオーザー 18:21, 7 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

TD-TD1.INVEST

90P.INVEST

12.3ºS 178.8ºE -- グリフオーザー 00:23, 10 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Disturbance TD1

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD1 [1009HPA] NEAR 12S 180 MOVING WEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT,GMS-5 IR/VISHR ANIMATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR THE LAST 18 HRS BUT HAS DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR THE LAST 6 HRS DUE TO DIURNAL VARIATION. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW IS STILL FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS IN A MINIMAL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM LIES UNDERNEATH A UPPER 250 RIDGE AND EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS. GLOBAL MODELS [ ANV,GASP,UK] SHOW NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
-- グリフオーザー 00:08, 10 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Very weird. Why "Tropical Disturbance TD1", this should be 04F? – Ch acor 08:02, 10 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Well, since it never was officially numbered as far as I can tell, we shouldn't add this to the article. RSMC Nadi now says NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA. – Ch acor 09:30, 10 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

special advisory I suppose -- グリフオーザー 22:40, 10 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

This is not 04F. Only tropical depressions are numbered. Other systems are given a short code in each bulletin for identification. Tropical Disturbances are referred as TD1, TD2, etc. Converage zones are referred as CZ1, CZ2, etc. Lows are referred as L1, L2, etc. These may change from bulletin to bulletin.Momoko 04:50, 12 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

91P.INVEST

10S 164.5W. -- RattleMan 18:35, 10 November 2006 (UTC)\[reply]

Week 3

02P.YANI (04F)

92P.INVEST

3.1ºS 177.8ºE -- グリフオーザー 01:36, 16 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Impressive system. Affecting Kiribati right now... – Ch acor 01:38, 16 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Area of convection has developed near 5.0ºS 178ºW or 785 nm north-northeast of Fiji. Imagery shows a well defined low level circulation center, but poorly organized deep convection with the majority convection. Sustained winds range from 15 to 20 knots with a center pressure of 1005 mb. Potential for a significate tropical cyclone within 24 hours is poor.
-- グリフオーザー 07:53, 16 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Disturbance advisory from Nadi, Fiji
-- グリフオーザー 02:44, 17 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD1 [1007HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 05S 174E AT 162100UTC MOVING SLOWLY WEST AT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY ANIMATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST IS AROUND 29-30C. NO ORGANISED CONVECTION NEAR LLCC. SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF A 250HPA RIDGE IN A DIFFLUENT REGION WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. POTENTIAL FOR TD1 TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

Tropical Depression 04F

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [1006HPA] NEAR 06.5S 175E AT 170600UTC MOVING
WEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR ANIMATION AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. 

ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE LAST 24 HRS BUT A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANT WITH SST
AROUND 29 DEGREE CELCIUS. 04F LIES TO THE NORTH OF A 250 HPA RIDGE IN
A DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS [AVN/UKGC/NOGAPS/GASPS] SLOWLY MOVES 04F
WESTWARDS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.     

POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

– Ch acor 13:10, 17 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Nadi warning: 11.8ºS 161.8ºE -- 30 knots 1000 hPa
Expected to become 35 knots within 24 hours
moving southwest at 12 knots -- グリフオーザー 21:31, 19 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

From the Brisbane, Aus. - At noon, Monday 20/11/2006, a 1000 hPa tropical low was centred well out in the Coral Sea near 12.1S 161.6E and moving west southwest at 10 km/hr. The low has a moderate to high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next few days. At the present time, the low is not influencing Queensland's weather -- グリフオーザー 06:39, 20 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Fiji Meteorological Service are now issuing six hour warnings for TD 04F [997 hPa 30 knots] expected to become 35 knots within 12 hours as storm moves southeast at 3 knots. -- グリフオーザー 23:08, 21 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

02P.NONAME

Now 02P on NRL. -- RattleMan 02:23, 22 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Cyclone Yani

Nadi RSMC upgrades the storm to 35 knots and names it Yani. -- グリフオーザー 03:57, 22 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Now category 3 on the Australian scale. It seems to be the first time for Fiji to use this scale.Momoko 08:27, 23 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Yes, I was wondering why they were using categories. – Ch acor 08:54, 23 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's been suggested that this is possibly because Brisbane are likely to take over responsibility within the forecast period. – Ch acor 14:31, 23 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

okay I was just wondering when I saw Severe Tropical Storm Yani on the track file at Nadi RSMC. -- グリフオーザー 09:22, 23 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Wow, that's weird. – Ch acor 09:28, 23 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Week 4

03S.ANITA [02R]

93S.INVEST

5S 55E - グリフオーザー 03:24, 25 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Dvorak intensity reading:
6.2S 47.4E T1.5/1.5 -- グリフオーザー 21:56, 26 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Disturbance 02R

6.6S 46.3E -- 25 knots 1005 hpa and 1835 nm north-northwest of La Reunion.

Here we go. TD expected before landfall. – Ch acor 02:05, 27 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Hmm... RSMC Réunion aren't calling this a "perturbation tropicale", they're saying it's a "zone perturbée"... – Ch acor 06:54, 27 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

That's as good as 'area of disturbed weather'. - SpLo T _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 12:40, 27 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Best way to avoid this might be to use the actual French designations of the systems in the article. – Ch acor 14:10, 27 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

So much for that, just as I made the change I checked MF and it's already a perturbation tropicale. Heh. – Ch acor 14:20, 27 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Météo France are now calling for a tempête tropicale moderée in 48 hours. First name is "Anita". – Ch acor 01:18, 28 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

even stronger forecast a Forte Tempete tropicale in 72 hours. -- グリフオーザー 07:14, 28 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

center became exposed this morning and storm lost convection now only forecasted to strengthen to a depression. -- グリフオーザー 19:23, 28 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

03S.NONAME

NRL carrying 03S. MF no longer expect landfall. – Ch acor 13:38, 29 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Cyclone 03S

TCFA, 85kt forecast [1] -- RattleMan 17:45, 29 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Naming of this storm is forecasted. -- グリフオーザー 23:20, 29 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Moderate Tropical Storm Anita

Per La Reunion. 35kt 10min. -- RattleMan 00:55, 1 December 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Downgraded to a depression tropicale and forecasted to dissipate in 24 hours by MF (well, it's been that way), last advisory by JTWC. --Core desat 07:28, 2 December 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC 1330 UTC: AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC 03S (ANITA) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0S 42.5E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM WEST-NORTH- WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD EASTWARD OUTFLOW BUT MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AN ANTICIPATED RELAXATION OF THIS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE REORIENTATION OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING COULD ALLOW THE DISTURBANCE TO REGENERATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EST- IMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND ANTICIPATED IMPROVE- MENT IN UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR. - SpLo T _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 15:34, 2 December 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Last advisory from La Réunion. --Core desat 08:12, 3 December 2006 (UTC)[reply]

04S.NONAME [05F]

94P.INVEST

6S 164E -- グリフオーザー 23:41, 28 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Disturbance 05F

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD [1004HPA] NEAR 06S 166E MOVING WEST 05 KNOTS. --Core desat 08:25, 29 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Okay, something weird has happened here:

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F [1004HPA] NEAR 06S 166E AT 0900UTC MOVING
SLOWLY WEST. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VISIBLE AND IR ANIMATION.

RSMC Nadi doesn't usually number disturbances from its main sequence, but here we are, Tropical Disturbance 05F. --Core desat 10:11, 29 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Depression 05F

now classified as a tropical depression 8.4S 164.2E -- グリフオーザー 23:19, 29 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

TCFA. --Core desat 08:29, 30 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Cyclone 04P

TC04P by JTWC and NRL. -- RattleMan 17:25, 30 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Fiji no longer forecasts immediate development. Low to moderate. – Ch acor 02:35, 1 December 2006 (UTC)[reply]

BOM has ceased advisories for the Solomon Islands. T-numbers down to 2.0. – Ch acor 08:33, 1 December 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Nadi RSMC has re-issued tropical disturbance warnings, but notes it could dissipate before next warning at 0200am. -- グリフオーザー 00:06, 2 December 2006 (UTC)[reply]