Talk:Allan Lichtman

Can't have it both ways

He was wrong in predicting the President in 2000, as he choose Gore.

However, if his model simply chooses the winner of the popular vote, then he was wrong by choosing Trump in 2016. So, which year was he wrong: 2000 or 2016? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2602:304:CE5F:2CE0:9C06:1CC:3EF8:1D84 (talk) 05:52, 23 November 2016 (UTC)

This is the place to discuss well-sourced article content. Instead of asking others to do the research, you will be a more effective contributor if you research the matter, find WP:RS references and propose any edits you feel reflect the sources within Wikipedia's editing policies and guidelines. SPECIFICO talk 15:46, 23 November 2016 (UTC)

I've since corrected the article to properly reflect this editor's concern. It would appear that Litchman, in his desire to be "right" has indeed contradicted himself. While Litchman excused his previous error of 2000 by pointing out the discrepancy between the popular vote and the electoral vote, he should not be permitted to then reverse this same logic in the 2016 election, and still claim that he was accurate in both elections. He cannot "have his cake and eat it too."

Still, I think that it is fair to give Litchman credit for the 2016 election and to disqualify his prediction on the 2000 election, because Litchman does not appear to be consistently referring to popular vote results, but to instead be predicting electoral outcomes. As requested above, I have now inserted an appropriate cite regarding Litchman's erroneous prediction for the 2000 election. Thanks, Scott P. (talk) 16:03, 3 December 2016 (UTC)

No, he's been pretty consistent in that his model is only for the the popular vote. His model retrospectively claimed Tilden and Cleveland should have won in 1876 and 1888, respectively, and I recall in his book on the 13 keys, he flat out said that the Electoral College was irrelevant. I've updated with the relevant source. Somebody Who Exists (talk) 01:27, 9 December 2016 (UTC)

I think it's inconsistent to fault Lichtman on both the 2000 and 2016 presidential races. If his system predicts the popular vote, then he was correct in 2000 and incorrect in 2016. But if his system predicts the electoral vote, then he was incorrect in 2000 and correct in 2016.

From there it becomes the task of determining whether his system is supposed to predict the popular or electoral vote. Since his books are called "The Keys to the White House," it seems to be indicating that his system is designed to predict who will end up in the White House, i.e., who will win the electoral college. After all, a model that predicts the popular vote but doesn't predict a winner seems futile and pointless. So, I believe the intro to this article should indicate that he has predicted the winner for every presidential election since 1984 except 2000 (with no mention of popular vs electoral vote).

That being said, Lichtman's possible inconsistency as to whether his model predicts the popular vs the electoral vote is a worthwhile inclusion in the article, but should be addressed in greater detail in the main body of the article. Walkingf00l (talk) 16:02, 16 August 2024 (UTC)

He’s publicly calling out this page for misquoting him and proporting false information-are we sure all linked sources are entirely accurate beyond a shadow of doubt? 180.200.201.84 (talk) 23:15, 30 August 2024 (UTC)

I don't see how his model can be considered valid for the electoral vote. He doesn't consider differences between states in his analysisJsnyder527 (talk) 00:02, 22 August 2020 (UTC).

He's still teaching and seems very approachable; why don't you write him at his university email address and ask? – Aboudaqn (talk) 19:58, 24 August 2020 (UTC)

We should settle this point, as there's been a lot of dispute about this recently on the 13 Keys page. Here are several sources regarding this discrepancy:

1. This source is the one most cited, but I cannot get access.
2. His 2016 book (preview on Amazon says popular vote on page 2). A citation to his 2016 book here would also be consistent with this inconsistency, there is a quote in it: “predict only the national popular vote and not the vote within individual states.”
3. Not that a Reddit thread is a source, but it explains this more coherently: here
4. Another article explaining the discrepancy: here.

His books from the 1990s do say popular vote only, so I am inclined to count 2000 but not count 2016, consistent with the sources. Anyone with access to that document or with insight, it would help Caraturane (talk) 02:05, 24 June 2024 (UTC)

Someone was able to get a link to the document in question over on Talk:The Keys to the White House, they strongly support the fact he was using the popular vote in 2016. Caraturane (talk) 21:41, 25 June 2024 (UTC)

I do not have a reliable source yet , but I remember him saying that after 2000 he revised his model to consider the electoral vote instead of the popular vote. I will continue to look for a source, before editing the article. 09:04, 25 July 2024 (UTC) RevDan (talk) 09:04, 25 July 2024 (UTC)

He revised it after 2016. At least, that's the first time he communicated it officially. Tomcleontis (talk) 13:08, 25 July 2024 (UTC)

Inaccurate Intro

The intro makes this false statement: It says he "accurately predicted the winner of every U.S. presidential election since 1984, with the exception of 2000 … and 2016, where he predicted Donald Trump would win, despite Trump's popular vote loss." Of course, Trump did win, despite his popular vote loss. After looking up the prediction, I'm changing it to this: "… and 2016, where he predicted Donald Trump would win the popular vote." (At least I think that's what Lichtman predicted. When he makes his prediction, he's not clear if he's predicting a popular vote victory or an electoral victory. They're usually the same thing, but his two failures happened when the winner lost the popular vote. MiguelMunoz (talk) 00:22, 9 July 2024 (UTC)

I updated this a bit to say he correctly predicted the "outcome" as I think that's a more useful word here since he changed what it was predicting (this lets him get due credit for 2000 but not for 2016, in line with the sources). Tomcleontis (talk) 13:09, 25 July 2024 (UTC)

Lichtman pushed for edit

Just wanted to highlight that Lichtman specifically called on his fans to edit this page in his Youtube livestream tonight, which looks like it corresponds with edits made regarding his 2000 and 2016 predictions. Not sure how this sort of thing is usually handled but seems like it should be reversed. — Preceding unsigned comment added by AmeriMike (talk • contribs) 02:17, 16 August 2024 (UTC)

This is a conflict-of-interest edit and raises other policy violations. I have reverted these edits and informed Wiki admins. Caraturane (talk) 03:20, 16 August 2024 (UTC)

Protection has been requested. Knitsey (talk) 12:20, 16 August 2024 (UTC)

It's not a conflict of interest. Lichtman was correct. He predicted Trump would win the 2016 election and that's exactly what happened. Jimv1983 (talk) 18:16, 31 August 2024 (UTC)

Regardless of whether Lichtman was correct (which was discussed at length months ago, and included the Wikipedia community paying to access his October 2016 paper mentioned by recent reporting and explanation on several platforms, which was a major part in resolving the question), it is a conflict-of-interest edit in violation of Wikipedia policy to ask supporters to remove material on a Wikipedia page related to you, that it was only material which serves to flatter the subject makes it additionally suspect. Caraturane (talk) 20:32, 31 August 2024 (UTC)

FYI he is doing it again: https://x.com/jaffejuice/status/1835639646774006021 Tomcleontis (talk) 16:35, 16 September 2024 (UTC)

Clarifying Lichtman's Keys

It seems that Lichtman revised the system to predict the winner of the election after the 2000 election, but before the 2016 election. So his 2016 prediction was correct as it was accounting for the overall winner. [1] Wikentromere (talk) 17:17, 16 August 2024 (UTC)

The Keys-model was wrong in 2016, just as the references say. Lichtman wrote a paper where he described the model:

As a national system, the Keys predict the popular vote, not the state-by-state tally of Electoral College votes.

He also believed the popular vote was very correlated with the Electoral College votes (of course), but he was very clear that "the Keys" predicted the popular vote. But in 2016 the Keys predicted that Trump would win the popular vote, who lost the popular vote. So the Keys were wrong in 2016. Paditor (talk) 17:37, 16 August 2024 (UTC)

So is he just lying when he says he revised the model after 2000 to predict the actual winner, not just the popular vote winner, in that NYT piece? (Forgot to login, also genuine question) 2601:194:8380:7D60:7D9D:1CC:DA74:EF1C (talk) 18:04, 16 August 2024 (UTC)

His recent statements about his 2016 prediction are untrue (we shouldn't be calling people liars), there's no doubt that every time he was pressed before 2016, and in his own works, he always said it was just the popular vote being predicted by the keys. Tomcleontis (talk) 18:14, 16 August 2024 (UTC)

So when Lichtman predicted in 2016 that Trump would be impeached, was he predicting that Trump would not be president? He has made it clear he was calling the winner in 2016. Wikipedia1010121 (talk) 23:28, 17 August 2024 (UTC)

He released a paper in October of 2016 (after he said he was predicting Trump would win and would be impeached) which said that he was only predicting the popular vote and it goes a step farther and says he was not predicting the electoral college. He cannot have claimed to have it both ways because he said the keys only predicted the popular vote in 2000 so he was right when he predicted Al Gore. Caraturane (talk) 04:10, 18 August 2024 (UTC)

submitted for your approval

Please append to the "2024 presidential election" subsection:

Vice president Kamala Harris was nominated as the Democratic presidential candidate the next month. Lichtman predicted on September 5, 2024 that Harris would win the 2024 presidential election.

Robert Tait (September 5, 2024). "Kamala Harris will win election, predicts leading historian Allan Lichtman". The Guardian. soibangla (talk) 05:12, 6 September 2024 (UTC)

 Not done as this page is not longer protected, an administrator is not required. You may edit the page as appropriate. — xaosflux ^Talk 14:47, 17 September 2024 (UTC)

I updated it, good add! Caraturane (talk) 16:48, 17 September 2024 (UTC)

Protected edit request on 15 September 2024

Allan Lichtman did not fail to predict the winner (Al Gore) of the 2000 Presidential election, both in the Electoral College and in the popular vote. Five members of the U.S. Supreme Court stopped the vote count in Florida and then voted to install Bush as President. Later, after Bush had been inaugurated, the votes were counted by NORC and it was shown that Gore had won, no matter which decision-rule (concerning hanging chads, dimpled chads, etc.) was used. Little attention was given to this in the media, as the attacks of 9/11 had occurred in the meantime. Norshanson (talk) 06:02, 15 September 2024 (UTC)

 Not done Please provide a specific edit you would like made (ie "please add 'this text' in such-and-such paragraph"), which must be supported by reliable sources. Happy‑melon 09:32, 16 September 2024 (UTC)

I oppose this chance due to the speculative and hypothetical nature. The page already notes that he did predict the popular vote outcome correctly (what his book, model, and himself said he was predicting), but that Al Gore did not win the election. This is asking for an additional step, to assert that Gore actually won the election. That is a dispute better resolved on pages on the 2000 election. Perhaps adding a word like "...with the exceptions of the disputed election of 2000, where he..." would do the job? Caraturane (talk) 13:14, 16 September 2024 (UTC)

Unacceptable source

A source used in this article and in the article about the Keys uses an unacceptable source. I've started a discussion on the other Talk page -- Talk:The_Keys_to_the_White_House#Unacceptable_source. The discussion there will be applicable to this article as well, so let's keep it all in one place. JamesMLane t c 03:30, 3 October 2024 (UTC)

To be clear, you're *arguing* it's unacceptable but others like myself disagree. But yes lets keep discussion just over there. Apprentice57 (talk) 20:08, 4 October 2024 (UTC)

The discussion on the Keys talk page got nowhere. The next step in resolving the dispute was the thread on the Noticeboard for discussing whether Postrider was a reliable source for use here. Apprentice57 expressed the concern that Lichtman might recruit his fans to astroturf the comments. That didn't happen. Three uninvolved editors chimed in. They were obviously legitimate Wikipedians, having edited the encyclopedia since 2021, 2013, and 2005, respectively.

All three uninvolved editors agreed that Postrider should not be cited. Accordingly, I'm removing those links from the Lichtman bio and from the Keys article.

As I've made clear, removing the Postrider criticism doesn't mean the removal of all criticism. The next step is to examine how the articles address any contentious issues concerning the Keys and to see whether the treatment might be improved. JamesMLane t c 16:34, 8 October 2024 (UTC)

I'm going to write this mostly to document what happened, as that whole discussion became a mess. I can't expect editors here in the future to track all that, but I also want to summarize what actually happened because I think we should keep an eye out on how this editor handles themself acrimoniously and in opposition to wikipedia's consensus based approach.

Three (maybe four now) of us who have been active in editing/in the13 keys talk page objected to the removal on the merits, to the opposition of only JamesMLane. They sought uninvolved editors to weigh in on The Postrider being an unacceptable source (fair enough), and as soon as they got the first agreement with them there (*two* editors not three) they made the change unilaterally. They did so while one of us reached out to The Postrider on their independent review standards. JamesMLane agreed it was possible that the email could change even their judgement on the merits, yet made the unilateral edit here and there after 2 days.

We also proposed a good faith compromise that would've clearly been in line with wiki standards and removed any factual reference to The Postrider while still citing their criticism on the 13 keys model, which they dismissed out of hand. I think the other editors prefer we not fight this further, but I want to reiterate that I remain disappointed by the way they used themself as a gatekeeper, and bludgeoned the process to effectuate that. Apprentice57 (talk) 01:26, 11 October 2024 (UTC)

Thanks for your summary of this discussion. I do think this article has the potential to become a niche space where a few editors bludgeon in a bunch of puffery. the article had quite a few weasel words in it, some of which I've removed, and I'm going to continue to work on improving this article. Jjazz76 (talk) 20:48, 11 October 2024 (UTC)

@Apprentice57 pointed out on the other thread that we got another source (in the Atlantic) to use that makes most of this moot. I added a citation on this page to it in the area where the Postrider source was once included. Tomcleontis (talk) 19:48, 16 October 2024 (UTC)

Removing policy violations

There has been extensive discussion on the Keys talk page, including an RfC. The most salient point is what to say about the system's past predictions. In particular, reliable sources offer differing views about whether the system's record is perfect or only almost perfect.

In the RfC, only one uninvolved editor has weighed in so far. She cited WP:NPOV and WP:BLP in favoring the version of the Keys article that did not take sides on that question, but merely reported the competing viewpoints.

Pending further development of the RfC, I've edited this bio article accordingly. This is obviously not final. If other uninvolved editors come to a consensus that the Keys article should adopt one viewpoint, then this bio article can be edited accordingly. In the meantime, the version that best reflects the current status of the RfC should remain in place. Editors should take note of the information at the top of the page, which states in part, "Contentious material about living persons that is unsourced or poorly sourced must be removed immediately from the article...."

Ultimately, once the Keys article is stable, this article should follow WP:SS, with a brief summary here and a wikilink to the relevant section(s) of the Keys article. JamesMLane t c 00:52, 21 October 2024 (UTC)

As per WP:BRD, I'll be specific about my reasons for reverting to the version described above. The edit that I have reverted:

1. Removed the undeniably truthful statement that the Keys have received a lot of media attention. Why, there was even an article about them in The Atlantic!

2. Went back to asserting only one side of the controversy about the system's record, by changing "all or nearly all" (a report of the controversy) to just "nearly all" (the Wikipedia editor's opinion).

3. Removed the undeniably truthful statement that Lichtman hosts live streams. It is not "advertising" to give a factual report of a bio subject's activities in the bio subject's bio article. JamesMLane t c 03:17, 21 October 2024 (UTC)

I've adjusted and explained:

1. It's not notable, useful knowledge, or newsworthy that the Keys get media attention, that's why they are on Wikipedia. Conciseness suggests this is a superfluous note.
2. Essentially every source gives him 9/10 or 8/10. Aside from being wrong about the outcome in 2016, Lichtman also predicted Al Gore in 2000. If you care not to specifically add an explanation about this (like the article originally had) then the only neutral opinion is the commonly held one: that he got most right. Not all.
3. Promoting and linking to a live stream that gets a few thousand views is promotional. Wikipedia:NOTADVERT notes that "Wikipedia articles about a person, company, or organization are not an extension of their website, press releases, or other social media marketing efforts. External links to commercial organizations are acceptable if they identify notable organizations which are the topic of the article. Wikipedia neither endorses organizations nor runs affiliate programs. See also Wikipedia:Notability (organizations and companies) for guidelines on corporate notability. Those promoting causes or events, or issuing public service announcements, even if noncommercial, should use a forum other than Wikipedia to do so." None of these exceptions apply.

Caraturane (talk) 13:13, 21 October 2024 (UTC)

Yeahhh there's pretty much no reasonable reason to say "all elections", come on... Tomcleontis (talk) 15:54, 21 October 2024 (UTC)

1. This is like saying that the bio of Greta Thunberg doesn't need the section on Public response and impact because the public response and impact is the only reason she has a Wikipedia bio. There are plenty of people out there who've never heard of Greta Thunberg or Allan Lichtman. Wikipedia, seeking to make all human knowledge available to everyone in the world, gives readers the salient information about a bio subject, including public response to that person.

2. Note, for example, the article on the Brandeis website, which says that his system "has enabled him to predict the winner of every U.S. presidential election going back to 1984." I think "all or nearly all" is the best description, but your "most" is terrible; that could be just six out of ten. Most say nine out of ten; you say eight out of ten but offhand I don't remember seeing any that were even that low.

As to the wording, "all or nearly all" is best. Nevertheless, since you still object to the application of NPOV (report disputes, don't adjudicate them), I'm changing it to say that "he is credited with a high degree of accuracy in predicting the outcome of the elections from 1984 through 2020." That's less informative to the reader but its accuracy is indisputable, so perhaps this point at least won't need to be further argued.

3. Reporting the fact of a bio subject's role as a YouTuber is not advertising. For example, our Jake Paul bio states "Paul launched his YouTube channel on May 15, 2014.[15] His channel became known for pranks, controversies, and his hip hop music.[16]" The first footnote is a link to the channel itself. Lichtman's channel is not independently notable, and we probably wouldn't mention it in any other article -- but no other article would mention that he has a sister named Ronnie. The bio article is an appropriate place for reporting things that are significant in the context of that person's life, even if they aren't otherwise notable. JamesMLane t c 01:30, 22 October 2024 (UTC)

1. Figured the introduction could use some tightening but I'm not going to nickle and dime you on it.

2. "High degree of accuracy" is fair, see we can get along :)

3. Jake Paul is known for being a YouTuber and his videos get tens of millions of views. Allan Lichtman is not, and his videos don't. I believe including the channel is promotional and probably a violation of Wikipedia:EXTPROMO but I'm open to some additional input; I just really don't see how a YouTube video is super relevant in terms of Lichtman's career or history if it's not providing some sort of reporting, academic review, or major life event. Again I don't really want to nickle and dime these much more, I am not going to lose a lot of sleep over it, but in the interest of getting these pages in tip top shape, it stood out.

Thanks for your work otherwise, I don't mean to be a pain. Caraturane (talk) 04:09, 22 October 2024 (UTC)

It does feel promo'y at this point. To add some specifics: the channel was registered in 2019 but the oldest video viewable on the platform is from July 2023 and is commentary on this election cycle (older videos could exist if privated/unlisted/removed, but the video in question has 2.3k views - very few, so we're probably not missing a wealth of videos). He has 130k subscribers and 9 videos over 100k views (only 1 over 500k views). This is an up and coming channel, but still a medium sized one even in the context of YouTube (so small in the context of wikipedia). Usually notable channels are at least at the 1M subscribers mark. Apprentice57 (talk) 18:52, 22 October 2024 (UTC)

Glad we're at a point we're just debating if a Youtuber channel is relevant. Personally I don't think it's the end of the world to include it, but I was also one for including the Postrider as a source, which seems just as relevant/popular as a Youtube channel getting a few thousand views, so I don't want to be a hypocrite myself. I just generally lean in favor of overincluding! Tomcleontis (talk) 18:57, 22 October 2024 (UTC)

You're comparing apples and oranges. Postrider is not a reliable source per WP:SPS, so we don't cite what it says as a source for a factual assertion. As for the YouTube channel, however, we're not citing anything it says as a source. Instead, we're merely reporting on the simple (and undisputed) fact of its existence, because it's worth mentioning as one aspect of the life of the person whose bio this is. If the Postrider authors ever have Wikipedia bios, then, yes, those bios will mention that they have a blog (or whatever people want to call it), with a link.

There appears to be agreement to restore the info about media coverage and the YouTube channel, so I'll do so. JamesMLane t c 23:09, 24 October 2024 (UTC)

No, there is not agreement about the YouTube channel. As I argued above it's probably promotion. Apprentice57 (talk) 03:37, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

In the interest of getting along, I'm acquiescing in your removal of the term "model" to describe a system that is widely described as a model. That term was even used in the articles in The Atlantic and Newsweek that were advanced by Lichtman detractors as being so helpful. I'm sure there are people who get into detail about what does or does not constitute a model; I'll leave it to them to argue the point. JamesMLane t c 23:15, 24 October 2024 (UTC)

Look at us go, getting along! I believe The Postrider (their editor in chief noted that was the correct mechanic) may qualify as a reliable source ultimately in consideration of how work is reviewed, who is running it, and reliable and independent verifiability, but I have asked their editor to publish an outline of their editorial standards publicly and I'll hold my comment until that is done (for what it is worth, they were good sports about it).

The YouTube thing we can come back to eventually if we need to but I am willing to let it lie at this juncture, honestly I am hoping to take a couple weeks away from these pages and Wikipedia with the upcoming election filling my head. Caraturane (talk) 23:22, 24 October 2024 (UTC)

Again, you need to stop making unilateral edits to these pages while you wait for comments on your proposed changes. I explicitly pointed out this was problematic last time and asked you to not repeat this (waiting for the first feedback that agrees with you and changing things after a trivial amount of time).

Also remember, RfC welcome *all* to weigh in on proposed changes and does not distinguish between involved and uninovlved. The responses on a whole did not support your reading that there are any policy violations. Apprentice57 (talk) 17:20, 21 October 2024 (UTC)