2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa
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All 4 Iowa seats to the United States House of Representatives | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Democratic hold Republican hold Republican gain
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Elections in Iowa |
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The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the four U.S. representatives from the state of Iowa, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.
Overview
[edit]Party | Candi- dates |
Votes | Seats | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. | % | No. | +/– | % | |||
Republican Party | 4 | 859,418 | 52.42% | 3 | 2 | 75.00% | |
Democratic Party | 4 | 762,271 | 46.5% | 1 | 2 | 25.00% | |
Libertarian Party | 1 | 15,361 | 0.94% | 0 | 0.00% | ||
Write-in | 2,413 | 0.15% | 0 | 0.00% | |||
Total | 9 | 1,639,463 | 100.0% | 4 | 100.00% |
By district
[edit]District | Republican | Democratic | Others | Total | Result | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
District 1 | 212,088 | 51.25% | 201,347 | 48.65% | 434 | 0.10% | 413,869 | 100% | Republican gain |
District 2 | 196,964 | 49.912% | 196,958 | 49.910% | 703 | 0.178% | 394,625 | 100% | Republican gain |
District 3 | 212,997 | 47.55% | 219,205 | 48.94% | 15,745 | 3.51% | 447,947 | 100% | Democratic hold |
District 4 | 237,369 | 61.97% | 144,761 | 37.80% | 892 | 0.23% | 383,022 | 100% | Republican hold |
Total | 859,418 | 52.42% | 762,271 | 46.50% | 17,774 | 1.08% | 1,639,463 | 100% |
District 1
[edit]
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County results Hinson: 50–60% 60–70% Finkenauer: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 1st district is based in northeastern Iowa, and includes the cities of Dubuque, Cedar Rapids and Waterloo. The incumbent was Democrat Abby Finkenauer, who flipped the district and was elected with 51.0% of the vote in 2018.[1]
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Abby Finkenauer, incumbent U.S. representative[2]
Endorsements
[edit]Former US Executive Branch officials
- Barack Obama, former president of the United States (2009–2017), former Senator from Illinois (2005–2008)[3]
Federal officials
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from Massachusetts (2013-present), 2020 candidate for President[4]
Organizations
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Abby Finkenauer (incumbent) | 72,474 | 99.3 | |
Write-in | 482 | 0.7 | ||
Total votes | 72,956 | 100.0 |
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Ashley Hinson, state representative[13]
Defeated in primary
[edit]- Thomas Hansen, farmer and businessman[14]
Declined
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]State and local politicians
Organizations
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Ashley Hinson | 38,552 | 77.8 | |
Republican | Thomas Hansen | 10,845 | 21.9 | |
Write-in | 152 | 0.3 | ||
Total votes | 49,549 | 100.0 |
General election
[edit]Debate
[edit]No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||
Abby Finkenauer | Ashley Hinson | |||||
1 | Sep. 7, 2020 | Iowa PBS | [19] | P | P |
Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[20] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
Inside Elections[21] | Lean D | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] | Lean D | November 2, 2020 |
Politico[23] | Tossup | September 8, 2020 |
Daily Kos[24] | Lean D | October 15, 2020 |
RCP[25] | Tossup | October 13, 2020 |
Niskanen[26] | Lean D | July 26, 2020 |
The Economist[27] | Likely D | October 2, 2020 |
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Abby Finkenauer (D) |
Ashley Hinson (R) |
Other/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Monmouth University[28] | October 15–20, 2020 | 352 (RV) | ± 5.2% | 52% | 44% | 4%[b] |
352 (LV)[c] | 54% | 44% | – | |||
352 (LV)[d] | 56% | 42% | – | |||
Basswood Research (R)[29][A] | September 26–28, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 45% | 10%[e] |
Monmouth University[30] | July 25 – August 3, 2020 | 391 (RV) | ± 5% | 51% | 41% | 9%[f] |
391 (LV)[c] | 52% | 41% | 8%[g] | |||
391 (LV)[d] | 52% | 40% | 8%[g] | |||
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[31][B] | March 3–5, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 44% | – |
Harper Polling (R)[32][C] | January 11–12, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44%[h] | 40% | 15% |
40%[i] | 48% | – |
Generic Democrat vs Generic Republican
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register[33] | October 26–29, 2020 | – (LV)[j] | ± 7.1% | 36% | 51% | 9%[k] | 5%[l] |
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register[34] | September 14–17, 2020 | – (LV)[m] | ± 7.8% | 47% | 41% | – | – |
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register[35] | June 7–10, 2020 | – (LV)[n] | <= ± 7.7% | 48% | 42% | – | – |
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[36][B] | March 3–5, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4% | 37% | 44% | – | – |
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register[37] | March 2–5, 2020 | – (LV)[o] | – | 46% | 49% | – | – |
Harper Polling (R)[32][C] | January 11–12, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4% | 43%[h] | 44% | – | – |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Ashley Hinson | 212,088 | 51.2 | |
Democratic | Abby Finkenauer (incumbent) | 201,347 | 48.7 | |
Write-in | 434 | 0.1 | ||
Total votes | 413,869 | 100.0 | ||
Republican gain from Democratic |
District 2
[edit]
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County results Miller-Meeks: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Hart: 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 2nd district encompasses southeastern Iowa, and is home to the cities of Davenport, Iowa City, Muscatine, Clinton, Burlington, Ottumwa, Fort Madison, Oskaloosa, Bettendorf, Newton and Pella. The incumbent was Democrat Dave Loebsack, who was re-elected with 54.8% of the vote in 2018.[1] On April 12, 2019, he announced that he would not seek re-election.[39]
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]Withdrawn
[edit]- Newman Abuissa, engineer[41]
Declined
[edit]- Ken Croken, member of the Scott County Board of Supervisors[42]
- Cathy Glasson, union leader, nurse, and candidate for Governor of Iowa in 2018[43]
- Kevin Kinney, state senator[44]
- Dave Loebsack, incumbent U.S. representative[39]
- Ian Russell, attorney[45]
- Veronica Tessler, businesswoman[46] (endorsed Hart)[47]
- Zach Wahls, state senator[48][non-primary source needed][49]
Endorsements
[edit]Former US Executive Branch officials
- Barack Obama, former president of the United States (2009–2017, former Senator from Illinois (2005–2008)[3]
Federal politicians
- Cindy Axne, U.S. representative (IA-3)[50]
- Abby Finkenauer, U.S. representative (IA-1)[50]
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator from Minnesota[51][non-primary source needed]
- Dave Loebsack, U.S. representative (IA-2)[52]
Statewide politicians
- Patty Judge, former lieutenant governor of Iowa, former Iowa Secretary of Agriculture and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016
- Rob Sand, Iowa State Auditor[53]
State Senators
- Joe Bolkcom, state senator, District 43
- Chris Brase, former state senator, District 46
- Tom Courtney, former state senator, District 44
- Bob Dvorsky, former state senator, District 37
- Kevin Kinney, state senator, District 39
- Jim Lykam, state senator, District 45
- Rich Taylor, state senator, District 42
- Zach Wahls, state senator, District 37
State representatives
- Wes Breckenridge, state representative, District 29
- Mary Gaskill, state representative, District 81
- David Jacoby, state representative, District 74
- Monica Kurth, state representative, District 89
- Mary Mascher, state representative, District 86
- Phil Miller, former state representative, District 82
- Amy Nielsen, state representative, District 77
- Sally Stutsman, former state representative, District 77
- Phyllis Thede, state representative, District 93
- Mary Wolfe, state representative, District 98
- Frank Wood, former state representative, District 92, and former State Senator, District 42
Local politicians
- Ken Croken, Scott County Supervisor[54]
- Cindy Drost, former Mahaska County Recorder
- Bill Gluba, former mayor of Davenport
- Thom Hart, former Mayor of Davenport
- Nasseem Hesler, former mayor of Keosauqua
- Rick Larkin, Lee County Supervisor
- Rick Lincoln, Clinton County Sheriff
- Janet Lyness, Johnson County Attorney
- Megan Suhr, Knoxville City Councillor
- Eric Van Lancker, Clinton County Auditor
Party officials
- Sue Dvorsky, former chair of the Iowa Democratic Party[55]
Organizations
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Rita Hart | 67,039 | 99.6 | |
Write-in | 271 | 0.4 | ||
Total votes | 67,310 | 100.0 |
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Mariannette Miller-Meeks, state senator; nominee for this seat in 2008, 2010, and 2014[63]
Defeated in primary
[edit]- Tim Borchardt, retail worker[64]
- Steven Everly, electrician[65]
- Rick Phillips, businessman[66]
- Bobby Schilling, former U.S. representative from Illinois's 17th congressional district (2011–2013)[67]
Withdrawn
[edit]Declined
[edit]- Chris Cournoyer, state senator[69]
- Bob Gallagher, mayor of Bettendorf[70]
- Bobby Kaufmann, state representative[71]
- Barbara Kniff-McCulla, CEO of KLK Construction and member of the National Women's Business Council[72]
- Mark Lofgren, state senator[73]
- Chris Peters, surgeon and nominee for Iowa's 2nd congressional district in 2016 and 2018[74]
- Brad Randolph, mayor of Fort Madison[69]
- Roby Smith, state senator[70]
Endorsements
[edit]Federal officials
- Joni Ernst, U.S. senator from Iowa[75]
Statewide politicians
- Terry Branstad, former governor of Iowa[76]
- Mike Naig, Iowa Secretary of Agriculture[77]
- Kim Reynolds, Governor of Iowa[78]
Organizations
Federal politicians
- Jim Jordan, U.S. representative[79]
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | 23,052 | 47.6 | |
Republican | Bobby Schilling | 17,582 | 36.3 | |
Republican | Steven Everly | 2,806 | 5.8 | |
Republican | Rick Phillips | 2,444 | 5.1 | |
Republican | Tim Borchardt | 2,370 | 4.9 | |
Write-in | 161 | 0.3 | ||
Total votes | 48,415 | 100.0 |
General election
[edit]Debate
[edit]No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||
Rita Hart | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | |||||
1 | Oct. 8, 2020 | The Gazette KCRG-TV KYOU-TV |
Chris Earl James Lynch |
[80] | P | P |
Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[20] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
Inside Elections[21] | Lean D | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] | Lean D | November 2, 2020 |
Politico[23] | Tossup | September 8, 2020 |
Daily Kos[24] | Lean D | September 25, 2020 |
RCP[25] | Tossup | October 13, 2020 |
Niskanen[26] | Likely D | July 26, 2020 |
The Economist[27] | Likely D | October 2, 2020 |
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Rita Hart (D) |
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) |
Other/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Monmouth University[28] | October 15–20, 2020 | 355 (RV) | ± 5.2% | 49% | 43% | 8%[p] |
355 (LV)[c] | 51% | 42% | – | |||
355 (LV)[d] | 54% | 41% | – | |||
Monmouth University[30] | July 25 – August 3, 2020 | 374 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 47% | 44% | 9%[f] |
374 (LV)[c] | 44% | 48% | 8%[g] | |||
374 (LV)[d] | 45% | 48% | 7%[q] | |||
Harper Polling (R)[81][D] | July 26–28, 2020 | 406 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 41% | 41% | 16% |
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register[33] | October 26–29, 2020 | – (LV)[j] | ± 6.9% | 40% | 41% | 11%[r] | 8%[l] |
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register[34] | September 14–17, 2020 | – (LV)[s] | ± 8.7% | 50% | 46% | – | – |
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register[35] | June 7–10, 2020 | – (LV)[t] | <= ± 7.7% | 53% | 35% | – | – |
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register[37] | March 2–5, 2020 | – (LV)[u] | – | 41% | 49% | – | – |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | 196,964 | 49.912 | ||
Democratic | Rita Hart | 196,958 | 49.910 | ||
Write-in | 703 | 0.178 | |||
Total votes | 394,625 | 100.0 | |||
Republican gain from Democratic |
Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks was state-certified as the winner over Democrat Rita Hart on November 30 by an extremely narrow margin of 6 votes.[82] On December 2, Hart announced that she would contest the election with the House Administration Committee under the 1969 Federal Contested Elections Act.[83] On December 30, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced Miller-Meeks would be seated provisionally on January 3, 2021, with the rest of the incoming new Congress members.[84] Republicans sharply criticized Pelosi's decision to review the race in the House Administration Committee, calling it an attempt to steal the election. It was also criticized by moderate Democrats, who argued it was hypocritical to overturn a certified state election after criticizing attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.[85] Hart withdrew her challenge on March 31, 2021.[86] This was the closest House race in 2020 and one of the closest House races in a century.
District 3
[edit]
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County results Axne: 50–60% Young: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 3rd district encompasses southwestern Iowa, stretching from Des Moines to the state's borders with Nebraska and Missouri. The incumbent was Democrat Cindy Axne, who flipped the district and was elected with 49.3% of the vote in 2018.[1]
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Cindy Axne, incumbent U.S. Representative
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Cindy Axne (incumbent) | 76,681 | 99.2 | |
Write-in | 623 | 0.8 | ||
Total votes | 77,304 | 100.0 |
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- David Young, former U.S. representative[87]
Defeated in primary
[edit]- Bill Schafer, U.S. Army veteran[88]
Declined
[edit]Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | David Young | 39,103 | 69.5 | |
Republican | Bill Schafer | 16,904 | 30.1 | |
Write-in | 227 | 0.4 | ||
Total votes | 56,234 | 100.0 |
Third parties
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Bryan Jack Holder (Libertarian)[92]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[20] | Lean D | November 2, 2020 |
Inside Elections[21] | Lean D | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] | Lean D | November 2, 2020 |
Politico[23] | Lean D | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos[24] | Lean D | October 15, 2020 |
RCP[25] | Tossup | October 13, 2020 |
Niskanen[26] | Lean D | July 26, 2020 |
The Economist[27] | Lean D | October 2, 2020 |
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Cindy Axne (D) |
David Young (R) |
Bryan Holder (L) |
Other/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Monmouth University[28] | October 15–20, 2020 | 426 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 52% | 43% | – | 2%[v] |
426 (LV)[c] | 53% | 42% | – | – | |||
426 (LV)[d] | 55% | 41% | – | – | |||
Monmouth University[30] | July 25 – August 3, 2020 | 507 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 42% | 2% | 8%[p] |
507 (LV)[c] | 50% | 42% | – | 8%[w] | |||
507 (LV)[d] | 52% | 41% | – | 7%[x] | |||
The Tarrance Group (R)[93][B] | July 7–9, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 43% | 44% | 6% | 7%[y] |
The Tarrance Group (R)[94][B] | March 10–12, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 48% | – | 5%[z] |
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register[33] | October 26–29, 2020 | – (LV)[j] | ± 6.6% | 45% | 39% | 8%[aa] | 9%[l] |
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register[34] | September 14–17, 2020 | – (LV)[ab] | ± 7.7% | 48% | 42% | – | – |
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register[35] | June 7–10, 2020 | – (LV)[ac] | <= ± 7.7% | 52% | 36% | – | – |
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register[37] | March 2–5, 2020 | – (LV)[ad] | – | 42% | 43% | – | – |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Cindy Axne (incumbent) | 219,205 | 48.9 | |
Republican | David Young | 212,997 | 47.6 | |
Libertarian | Bryan Jack Holder | 15,361 | 3.4 | |
Write-in | 384 | 0.1 | ||
Total votes | 447,947 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic hold |
District 4
[edit]
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County results Feenstra: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Scholten: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 4th district is based in northwestern Iowa, including Sioux City, Ames, Mason City, Fort Dodge, Boone and Carroll. The incumbent was Republican Steve King, who had been re-elected with 50.3% of the vote in 2018.[1]
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Randy Feenstra, state senator[95]
Defeated in primary
[edit]- Steve King, incumbent U.S. representative[96]
- Steve Reeder, businessman[97]
- Bret Richards, U.S. Army veteran and former businessman[98]
- Jeremy Taylor, Woodbury County supervisor and former state representative[99]
Declined
[edit]- Rick Bertrand, state senator and candidate for Iowa's 4th congressional district in 2016[100]
- Cyndi Hanson, candidate for Iowa's 4th congressional district in 2018[101]
- Chris McGowan, president of the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce[102]
- Rick Sanders, Story County supervisor[103]
- Linda Upmeyer, Speaker of the Iowa House of Representatives[104]
Endorsements
[edit]State senators
- Annette Sweeney, state senator, District 25[105]
State representatives
- Dan Huseman, state representative, District 3[105]
- Megan Jones, state representative, District 2[105]
- Tim Kraayenbrink, state representative, District 5[106]
Individuals
- Ben Shapiro, conservative commentator and host of The Daily Wire[107]
- Bob Vander Plaats, president and CEO of The Family Leader, candidate for Governor of Iowa in 2002, 2006 and 2010 and nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Iowa in 2006[108]
Organizations
- Republican Jewish Coalition[109]
- Republican Main Street Partnership PAC[110]
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce[111]
Newspapers
State representatives
- Ralph Klemme, former state representative (District 3)[113]
Individuals
- Sam Clovis, national co-chair of Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign, candidate for State Treasurer of Iowa in 2014[114]
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Steve King |
Randy Feenstra |
Steve Reeder |
Jeremy Taylor |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[115][E] | May 16–18, 2020 | 400 (V) | ± 4.9% | 39% | 41% | 1% | 4% | 3%[F] | – |
41%[ae] | 48% | – | – | – | – | ||||
American Viewpoint[116][G] | May 7–8, 2020 | 350 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 39% | 36% | – | – | 9%[af] | 10% |
American Viewpoint[117][G] | April 27–29, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 41% | 34% | – | – | 8%[ag] | 15% |
American Viewpoint[117][G] | January 27–29, 2020 | – (V)[j] | – | 53% | 22% | – | – | – | –[j] |
G1 Survey Research[118][1] | October 1–3, 2019 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.89% | 59% | 15% | 6% | 0% | 2%[ah] | 17% |
64%[ai] | 24% | – | – | – | 12%[aj] | ||||
64%[ai] | – | – | 19% | – | 17%[ak] |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Randy Feenstra | 37,329 | 45.5 | |
Republican | Steve King (incumbent) | 29,366 | 35.9 | |
Republican | Jeremy Taylor | 6,418 | 7.8 | |
Republican | Bret Richards | 6,140 | 7.5 | |
Republican | Steve Reeder | 2,528 | 3.1 | |
Write-in | 176 | 0.2 | ||
Total votes | 81,957 | 100.0 |
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- J. D. Scholten, former paralegal, former professional baseball player, and nominee for Iowa's 4th congressional district in 2018[119]
Endorsements
[edit]Organizations
- League of Conservation Voters Action Fund[61]
- Sierra Club[11]
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | J. D. Scholten | 46,370 | 99.6 | |
Write-in | 166 | 0.4 | ||
Total votes | 46,536 | 100.0 |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[20] | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
Inside Elections[21] | Safe R | October 16, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] | Safe R | October 15, 2020 |
Politico[120] | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos[24] | Safe R | October 15, 2020 |
RCP[25] | Lean R | October 13, 2020 |
Niskanen[26] | Likely R | July 26, 2020 |
The Economist[27] | Likely R | October 2, 2020 |
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Randy Feenstra (R) |
J.D. Scholten (D) |
Other/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Monmouth University[28] | October 15–20, 2020 | 414 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 48% | 42% | 10%[al] |
414 (LV)[c] | 48% | 43% | – | |||
414 (LV)[d] | 47% | 44% | – | |||
Change Research (D)[121][H] | October 13–15, 2020 | 603 (LV) | ± 4% | 50% | 45% | – |
American Viewpoint (R)[122][G] | October 6–8, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 54% | 31% | 11%[am] |
Monmouth University[30] | July 25 – August 3, 2020 | 374 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 54% | 34% | 12%[an] |
374 (LV)[c] | 55% | 34% | 10%[ao] | |||
374 (LV)[d] | 56% | 33% | 10%[ao] |
with Steve King and J.D. Scholten
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Steve King (R) |
J.D. Scholten (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20 Insight (D)[123][I] | January 16–17, 2019 | 472 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 39% | 44% | 17% |
with Steve King and Generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Steve King (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20/20 Insight (D)[123][I] | January 16–17, 2019 | 472 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 37% | 45% | 18% |
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democrat |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register[33] | October 26–29, 2020 | – (LV)[j] | ± 6.9% | 50% | 33% | 10%[ap] | 8%[l] |
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register[34] | September 14–17, 2020 | – (LV)[aq] | ± 7.5% | 49% | 44% | – | – |
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register[35] | June 7–10, 2020 | – (LV)[ar] | <= ± 7.7% | 57% | 35% | – | – |
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register[37] | March 2–5, 2020 | – (LV)[as] | – | 51% | 40% | – | – |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Randy Feenstra | 237,369 | 62.0 | |
Democratic | J. D. Scholten | 144,761 | 37.8 | |
Write-in | 892 | 0.2 | ||
Total votes | 383,022 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "No one" with 1%; Undecided with 3%
- ^ a b c d e f g h With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- ^ a b c d e f g h With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- ^ Undecided with 10%
- ^ a b "Other/none" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
- ^ a b c "Other/none" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
- ^ a b Standard VI response
- ^ Response after pollster addresses respondents with message testing
- ^ a b c d e f Not yet released
- ^ "Refused" with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
- ^ a b c d Includes "Do not remember"
- ^ Not yet released; IA-01 subsample of statewide sample of 658
- ^ Not yet released; IA-01 subsample of statewide sample of 674
- ^ Not yet released; IA-01 subsample of statewide sample of 667
- ^ a b "Other" and "No one" with 1%; Undecided with 6%
- ^ "Other/none" with 1%; Undecided with 6%
- ^ "Refused" with 5%; "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
- ^ Not yet released; IA-02 subsample of statewide sample of 658
- ^ Not yet released; IA-02 subsample of statewide sample of 674
- ^ Not yet released; IA-02 subsample of statewide sample of 667
- ^ "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
- ^ "Holder (L)/Other" with 3%; Undecided with 5%
- ^ "Holder (L)/Other" with 2%; Undecided with 5%
- ^ Undecided with 7%
- ^ Undecided with 5%
- ^ "Refused" with 4%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
- ^ Not yet released; IA-03 subsample of statewide sample of 658
- ^ Not yet released; IA-03 subsample of statewide sample of 674
- ^ Not yet released; IA-03 subsample of statewide sample of 667
- ^ If only King and Feenstra were candidates
- ^ "Another candidate" with 9%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 8%
- ^ Bret Richards with 2%
- ^ a b If respondents had to choose between the two candidates for which percentages are listed
- ^ "Undecided/don't know/refused" with 12%
- ^ "Undecided/don't know/refused" with 17%
- ^ "Other" and "No one" with 2%; Undecided with 6%
- ^ Undecided with 11%
- ^ "Other/none" with 4%; Undecided with 8%
- ^ a b "Other/none" with 3%; Undecided with 7%
- ^ "Refused" with 4%; "Someone else" and would not vote with 3%
- ^ Not yet released; IA-04 subsample of statewide sample of 658
- ^ Not yet released; IA-04 subsample of statewide sample of 674
- ^ Not yet released; IA-04 subsample of statewide sample of 667
Partisan clients
- ^ This poll's sponsor, the Congressional Leadership Fund, had endorsed Hinson prior to the poll's sampling period.
- ^ a b c d This poll was sponsored by the NRCC
- ^ a b The Future Leaders Fund is a pro-Republican PAC
- ^ Poll conducted for the Congressional Leadership Fund.
- ^ American Future Fund is a PAC supporting Randy Feenstra
- ^ Richards with 3%
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Feenstra's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by Scholten's campaign.
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Majority Rules PAC
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State Senator Zach Wahls has said he would not run for Congress if Hart does.
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Rita Hart (IA-02)
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{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link) - ^ Gruber-Miller, Stephen (May 5, 2020). "U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorses challenger Randy Feenstra over Rep. Steve King in primary race". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved May 10, 2020.
- ^ board, Journal editorial (May 31, 2020). "OUR OPINION: Feenstra represents best choice for Republicans in 4th District U.S. House primary". Sioux City Journal.
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- ^ Public Opinion Strategies (R)
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- ^ a b American Viewpoint
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External links
[edit]- "League of Women Voters of Iowa". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- National Institute on Money in Politics; Campaign Finance Institute, "Iowa 2019 & 2020 Elections", OpenSecrets
Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates
Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates
- Rita Hart (D) for Congress Archived July 24, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
- Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) for Congress Archived November 7, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
Official campaign websites for 3rd district candidates
- Cindy Axne (D) for Congress Archived May 1, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
- David Young (R) for Congress Archived June 3, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
Official campaign websites for 4th district candidates