User:EdChem/DYK clicks

I've been thinking a lot about the criticisms of WP:DYK relating to poor view / click rates associated with hooks. In particular, the claim that hooks on average result in 1000 views strikes me as an underestimate. However, Physchim62's statistic is an empirical result based on his analysis, whereas my intuition is really just an opinion - and as a scientist, I am well aware which carries more weight. So, I am creating this page as a record of my investigation of the views that DYK hooks receive.

Preliminary Investigation

As a preliminary investigation, I have examined a few recent hooks at random, and found that single-article hooks with under 1000 views seem rare. I also found that the non-bolded links in the hooks appear to also attract hits. So, step one will examine a few of my DYK noms.

Hook for Hans Freeman

• ... that Hans Freeman introduced protein crystallography to Australia and determined the structure of plastocyanin, the first protein to be structurally characterised in the southern hemisphere?

On 13 August 2010, the day of the hook's main page appearance, the Hans Freeman article received 1158 views. Average views for the other 30 days of August was (1907 − 1158) ÷ 30 = 25 views.

The protein crystallography article received 988 views on 13 August. Average views for the other 30 days of August was (1440 − 988) ÷ 30 = 15 views.

The plastocyanin article received 1063 views on 13 August. Average views for the other 30 days of August was (2015 − 1063) ÷ 30 = 32 views.

The Australia article receives so many views that attributing any views on 13 August to the hook is unjustified. The protein article shows no variation in views when the hook was on the main page, and in fact the views spiked to more than triple the daily average on 27 August (the reason for this spike is not clear). The southern hemisphere article does show a spike in views on 13 August, one of four that month. Taking the average of the remaining 27 days, the average views for that article run at (38663 - 9400) / 27 = 1084 per day, so the views in excess of that (2000 − 1084 = 916) on 13 August might reasonably be attributed to the DYK hook.

So, for this hook, views of all articles linked in the hook over and above their average daily views (and leaving out articles where no extra views can reasonably be inferred) were (1158 − 25) + (988 − 15) + (1063 − 32) + (2000 − 1084) = 4053. Put another way, the bolded article views represented (1158 − 25) / 4053 = 28% of all views attracted by the hook.

Hook for rhodocene

• ... that the rhodocene monomer exists in solid state at or below liquid nitrogen temperatures (−196 °C) and in gas phase above 150 °C but not at room temperature?

On 14 August 2010, the day of the hook's main page appearance, the rhodocene article received 2147 views. Average views for the other 30 days of August was (3072 − 2147) ÷ 30 = 31 views.

The monomer article received 1298 views on 14 August. Average views for the other 30 days of August was (16316 − 1298) ÷ 30 = 501 views.

The gas phase article received 893 views on 14 August. Average views for the other 30 days of August was (1326 − 893) ÷ 30 = 14 views.

The liquid nitrogen article receives views that follow a predictable and repeating pattern with a period of seven days. Based on that pattern, the article received approximnately 1000 extra views above that pattern on 14 August. The room temperature article follows a similar (seven-day pattern and approximnately 850 extra views above that pattern is a reasonable estimate of the effect of the hook.

So, for this hook, views of all articles linked in the hook over and above their average daily views were (2147 − 31) + (1298 − 501) + (893 − 14) + 1000 + 850 = 5642. Put another way, the bolded article views represented (2147 − 31) / 5642 = 38% of all views attracted by the hook.

Multi-Article Hook

• 
  ... that ophanin, piscivorin, ablomin, latisemin and triflin, found in the venom of the King Cobra (pictured), the water moccasin, the Mamushi snake, the Erabu sea snake and the Habu snake, respectively, are all cysteine-rich secretory proteins that can reduce muscle contractions?

On 30 October 2010, the day of the hook's main page appearance, the ophanin article received 871 views. Average views for the other 30 days of August was (1177 − 871) ÷ 30 = 10 views.

The piscivorin article received 675 views on 30 October. Average views for the other days in October when the article existed was (1071 − 675) ÷ 12 = 33 views.

The ablomin article received 603 views on 30 October. Average views for the other days in October when the article existed was (1010 − 603) ÷ 16 = 25 views.

The latisemin article received 517 views on 30 October. Average views for the other days in October when the article existed was (738 − 517) ÷ 12 = 18 views.

The triflin article received 619 views on 30 October. Average views for the other days in October when the article existed was (983 − 619) ÷ 12 = 30 views.

The Cysteine-rich secretory protein article received 1404 views on 30 October. Average views for the other days in October when the article existed was (1521 − 1404) ÷ 4 = 29 views.

The venom article received 1300 views on 30 October, one of three days in October where a spike in views occurred. Each of these days corresponds to the appearance of the venom article as a link in a DYK hook. Looking at the trends, approximately 500 additional views can reasonably be attributed to the DYK hook.

The King Cobra article receives views that follow a predictable and repeating pattern with a period of seven days. Based on that pattern, the article received approximnately 3400 extra views above that pattern on 30 October.

The water moccasin article received 1901 views on 30 October. Average views for the other 30 days of October was (4580 − 1901) ÷ 30 = 89 views.

The Mamushi snake article received 1217 views on 30 October. Average views for the other 30 days of October was (2290 − 1217) ÷ 30 = 36 views.

The Erabu sea snake article received 1057 views on 30 October. Average views for the other 30 days of October was (1229 − 1057) ÷ 30 = 66 views.

The Habu snake article received 1259 views on 30 October. Average views for the other 30 days of October was (4759 − 1259) ÷ 30 = 117 views.

The pattern of viewing of the muscle contraction article follows a seven-day cycle, but estimating the extra views reasonably attributable to the DYK hook appears difficult and imprecise. So, the sensible inference is to assume that the hook produced no extra views.

Interestingly, there is one other possible link in this hook, that to the image itself. The File:Ophiophagus hannah (2).jpg received 3192 views on 30 October. Average views for the other 30 days of October was (5656 − 3192) ÷ 30 = 82 views.

So, for this hook, views of all articles bolded in the hook over and above their average daily views were (871 − 10) + (675 − 33) + (603 − 25) + (517 − 18) + (619 − 30) + (1404 − 29) = 4544. Views of all articles not bolded in the hook over and above their average daily views were 500 + 3400 + (1901 − 89) + (1217 − 36) + (1057 − 66) + (1259 − 117) + (3192 − 82) = 12136. Put another way, the bolded article views represented 4544 ÷ (4544 + 12136) = 27% of all views attracted by the hook.

Summary

Looking at just these three hooks, we find the following:

Date	Hook	Views for bold articles	Views for bold articles corrected for average daily views	Views for non-bold articles corrected for average daily views	Total views from hook, corrected for average daily views	Bold views as a percentage of all views	Non-bold views per bold view
13 Aug 2010	... that Hans Freeman introduced protein crystallography to Australia and determined the structure of plastocyanin, the first protein to be structurally characterised in the southern hemisphere?	1158	1133	2920	4053	28%	2.58
14 Aug 2010	... that the rhodocene monomer exists in solid state at or below liquid nitrogen temperatures (−196 °C) and in gas phase above 150 °C but not at room temperature?	2147	2116	3526	5642	38%	1.67
30 Oct 2010	... that ophanin, piscivorin, ablomin, latisemin and triflin, found in the venom of the King Cobra (pictured), the water moccasin, the Mamushi snake, the Erabu sea snake and the Habu snake, respectively, are all cysteine-rich secretory proteins that can reduce muscle contractions?	871 + 675 + 603 + 517 + 619 + 1404 = 4689	4544	12136	16680	27%	2.59

At least for this small sample, it is clear that the views for the non-bolded articles make up the majority of views for the hook - somewhere between 1.5 and 3 non-bold article clicks per bold article click. Thus, statistics based solely on the articles highlighted are likely to substantially under-estimate the interest generated by the DYK project. Unless these hooks are massively atypical, the claim of an average of 1000 views from each hook at DYK appears also to be an under-estimate. Perhaps the most important conclusion, examining an entire days worth of hooks by this method would provide a worthwhile next step in this investigation.

Complete Set of Hooks - 14 August 2010

Hook	Views for bold articles	Views for bold articles corrected for average daily views	Views for non-bold articles corrected for average daily views	Total views from hook, corrected for average daily views	Bold views as a percentage of all views	Non-bold views per bold view
... that the Teatro de la Ciudad (pictured) was the most important cultural venue in Mexico City until the Palacio de Bellas Artes was finally finished in the 1930s?	1799	1777	1614 + 0 + 1374 = 2988	4765	37%	1.68
... that Clifford Grossmark, chairman of Gillingham F.C. from 1961 until 1983, was widely known in football circles as simply "The Doctor"?	1327	1315	1159	2474	53%	0.88
... that in 1982 the United States Supreme Court determined that a Native American Indian tribe may impose taxes on non-Indians, in Merrion v. Jicarilla Apache Tribe?	1884	1866	850	2716	69%	0.46
... that Josh Zepps, the past host of the Science Channel's Brink television series, formerly wrote and narrated a radio segment that satirized the Prime Ministers of Australia?	1248	1230	917 + 1107 + 0 = 2024	3254	38%	1.65
... that the rhodocene monomer exists in solid state at or below liquid nitrogen temperatures (−196 °C) and in gas phase above 150 °C but not at room temperature?	2147	2116	797 + 879 + 1000 + 850 = 3526	5642	38%	1.67
... that The Float@Marina Bay, a venue of the 2010 Summer Youth Olympics, hosts the opening and closing ceremonies of the Games as the world's largest floating stage?	1649	1475	2496 + 0 + 765 = 3261	4736	31%	2.21
... that Japanese trade union leader Ritsuta Noda was a pioneer in the underground birth control movement in Osaka?	1718	1702	0 + 750 + 1000 + 700 = 2450	4152	41%	1.44
... that when alleged demoniac Antoine Gay met another alleged demoniac, a friar who saw the meeting claimed he could hear the two demons arguing over which one was greater?	4826	4677	3246	7923	59%	0.69
... that the fragile building material bungaroosh is so prevalent in Brighton that much of the town "could be demolished with a well-aimed hose"?	4919	4892	1700	6619	74%	0.35

Looking at this single set of 9 hooks, and after correcting for typical views for articles, the bold articles attracted 21,100 views. The non-bold articles attracted a further 21,204 views. Thus, a total of 42,304 views (or 4700 views per hook). Assuming each of the four sets in a day achieved similar results, this equates to almost 170,000 views from the DYK section in a single day

Hook	Views for bold articles	Views for bold articles corrected for average daily views	Views for non-bold articles corrected for average daily views	Total views from hook, corrected for average daily views	Bold views as a percentage of all views	Non-bold views per bold view
... that the Tollemache Almshouses (pictured) in Nantwich, Cheshire, may stand on the site of the Hospital of St Lawrence, a medieval lazar house?	1876 + 1224 = 3100	1856 + 1206 = 3062	1478 + 900 + 400 + 1200 + 2368 = 6346	9408	33%	2.07
... that Austrian composer Franz Schreker's most successful opera Der Schatzgräber was performed 354 times in over fifty cities between 1920 and 1925?	1121	1086	1535	2621	41%	1.41
... that 196 activists of the Japanese Hyōgikai trade union movement were jailed in 1926 for organizing strikes?	1202	1181	0 + 750 + 698 = 1448	2629	45%	1.23
... that Tony Branoff became the first sophomore selected as MVP of the Michigan football team after leading the 1953 squad in scoring, handling punting duties and throwing a 66-yard touchdown pass?	1020	1000	1260 + 640 + 783 + 766 + 684 + 730 = 4863	5863	17%	4.86
... that an "exact replica" of the Temple of Solomon called the Templo de Salomão is being built in Brazil?	2647	2627	1772 + 0 = 1772	4399	60%	0.67
... that the District 5 School in the Cobblestone Historic District in Childs, New York, is one of only two buildings in the state to use cobblestone as a veneer over timber frame?	1259	1232	868 + 940 + 830 + 776 = 3414	4646	27%	2.77
... that the motto of The Wide World Magazine (1898–1965) was "Truth is stranger than fiction"?	1427	1408	—	1408	100%	—
... that the Unidad Habitacional Nonoalco-Tlatelolco, the largest apartment complex in Mexico, was declared a disaster area after the 1985 Mexico City earthquake?	1561	1538	896	2434	63%	0.58
... that John R. Branca wanted all three judges at a bout to be women, but one of the boxer's handlers nixed the idea as "there's going to be a lot of blood and I don't want the three judges throwing up"?	1323	1304	0 + 709 = 709	2013	65%	0.54

Looking at this single set of 9 hooks, and after correcting for typical views for articles, the bold articles attracted 14,438 views. The non-bold articles attracted a further 20,983 views. Thus, a total of 35,421 views (or 3936 views per hook).

Adding this to the previous set, we have 35,624 views of bolded articles and 42,803 views of non-bolded articles from two update sets (half a day).