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The Egyptian Crisis was a period that started with the Egyptian revolution of 2011 and ended with the installation of a counterrevolutionary regime under the presidency of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in 2014. It was a tumultuous three years of political and social unrest, characterized by mass protests, a series of popular elections, deadly clashes, and military reinforcement. The events have had a lasting effect on the country's current course, its political system and its society.

In 2011, hundreds of thousands of Egyptians took to the streets in an ideologically and socially diverse mass protest that ultimately ousted longtime president Hosni Mubarak.[1][2] A protracted political crisis ensued, with the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces taking control of the country until the 2012 presidential election brought Mohamed Morsi, the former Muslim Brotherhood leader, into power as the first democratically elected President of Egypt.[3] However, ongoing disputes between the Muslim Brotherhood and secularists led to anti-government protests and ultimately culminated in the July 3, 2013 coup d'état, led by chief General el-Sisi, that ousted President Morsi. The military move deepened the political schism and led to a crackdown by security forces, resulting in the killing of over a thousand of Morsi-supporters.[4] In 2014, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi eventually won the presidential election in a landslide victory, criticized by international observers as lacking democratic standards.[5]

The authority of the state had been threatened, but had not collapsed after three years of turmoil.

Terminology

[edit]

There is a debate among pundits on how to refer to this juncture, as it led to the overthrow of Mubarak's long-standing presidency but didn't bring long-lasting effects to Egypt's political system. The term revolution is mainly used in the context of the 2011 uprisings, but isn't necessarily applied to the period that followed the toppling of the Mubarak regime. The discussion relates to broader reflections on Arab uprisings during the Arab Spring, described by Asef Bayat as "political upheavals that were both revolutionary and non-revolutionary".[6] Situated on the intersection between revolution and democratic transition, the series of events between 2011 and 2014 in Egypt have been characterized as a "revolutionary situation",[7] a "revolutionary period",[8] an "authoritarian breakdown",[9] a "constitutional revolution",[10] and, as a "revolutionary process" that was followed by "two waves of counterrevolution".[11] In public discourse, the Egyptian revolution is frequently referred to as a "failed revolution".[12][13][14][15]

Background

[edit]
Main articles: History of Egypt under Hosni Mubarak and History of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt

During his presidency, Hosni Mubarak pursued policies similar to those of his predecessor Anwar Sadat, including the adoption of a neoliberal model corrupted by cronyism, and a commitment to the Camp David Accords.[16] He also continued the gradual reduction of the military's influence and control over Egyptian politics by clearing the ministries from military elites.[17] By 2010, the military only accounted for 8% of Mubarak's ministerial appointments.[18] The demilitarization was further implemented on the economic level, as a consequence of Mubarak's economic liberalization program, reducing both the state's and the military's role in the economy. It led to a drastic decrease in defense expenditures by 2010.[19] Although the gradual reshuffling of power led to tensions between Mubarak's government and the military, his regime was considered stable by experts and its collapse had not been anticipated.[16][17]

Throughout Mubarak's 30-year reign, civil society groups constantly clashed, bargained, and made settlements with the state.[7] As a result, a public space developed in which parties, elections, protests, administrative courts, and associations became important places for political contention. Although these forms of public politics were tolerated, the government rigorously controlled and contained opposition, a strategy identified by El-Ghobashy as one of the cornerstones of Mubarak's authoritarian rule.[7]

The ever-increasing discontent among Egyptian citizens with the authoritarian regime originated in various concerns, including the brutal policing, the tight control of media outlets, the use of violence and torture, corruption, election fraud, unemployment, and poverty.[20] Being nearly three decades in power, Mubarak was ousted following 18 days of demonstrations in Tahrir Square during the Egyptian revolution of 2011.

Events

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2011 Egyptian uprising

[edit]
Main article: Egyptian revolution of 2011
Top: Tahrir Square protesters on 9 February; Bottom: The main headquarters of the National Democratic Party on fire.

The public resentment against the autocratic leadership of President Hosni Mubarak erupted into mass protests in late January 2011, following the Tunisian revolution that overthrew President Ben Ali in mid-January.[21] Hundreds of thousands of Egyptians occupied several public places across Egypt, with Cairo's Tahrir Square as the hub of the anti-government protests, despite efforts by Mubarak loyalists and police to dislodge them.[22] The police and demonstrators clashed violently, and the killing of three protestors remarkably deviated from the harsh but non-lethal repression the police usually deployed.[23][24] Initially, the government took a hard line by using riot-control tactics and by shutting down the internet and telecom networks, which in turn intensified the protests.

After three days, on January 28, while Mubarak ordered the deployment of military forces in the streets of Cairo, Suez and Alexandria, the embattled police forces collapsed, described as being "the largest policing failure in Egypt's history".[7][25] In a bid to accommodate the public, Mubarak dissolved his cabinet and appointed Omar Suleiman to the long-vacant office of vice-president on January 29. Later, he announced that he would not seek re-election and promised constitutional reforms, but he refused to step down. As none of these concessions satisfied protesters, the masses on the streets grew while the military did not intervene, and international pressure on Mubarak increased. On 11 February 2011, Mubarak resigned as president and handed over power to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces "to manage the affairs of the country".[26][27]

Besides eradicating Mubarak's nearly 30-year authoritarian rule, the nationwide protests marked an unprecedented event in Egypt's history, as it successfully mobilized people from three different protest sectors - workplace , neighborhood, and pro-democracy - and merged them into one coalition against the government.[16][20] The 18-day uprising left at least 846 civilians killed and more than 6,400 people injured, according to a report commissioned by the Morsi-regime.[28][29] Human rights activists called for a serious investigation of the real number of revolution victims, as "the total number of casualties could be far higher".[30]

Transition under the SCAF regime

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Main article: Timeline of the Egyptian Crisis under the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces

Following Hosni Mubarak's resignation on 11 February 2011, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) under Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi assumed control of the country. The SCAF suspended the constitution and dissolved the parliament, tightening its grip over both legislative and executive power.[31] Within six months, free elections were to be organized in order to relinquish power in favor of elected civilians. The interim military rule was fully backed internationally, and, at least initially, well received by the public as a caretaker government, guaranteeing a rapid transition toward democracy.[32] The public support for the military regime appeared from the first post-Mubarak vote on March 19, 2011, in which 77.2% of voters approved the draft constitutional amendments proposed by the SCAF in a referendum.[20] The proposed amendments, although objected by many liberal revolutionaries, allowed the military to supervise and to schedule the long-awaited parliamentary and presidential elections.[33]

However, different civilian factions, including pro-democracy groups, Coptic Christians, the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Salafists, increasingly contested the SCAF's claim to sovereignty and called for the end of military rule during renewed mass protests. With the crumbling of popular support, the military's plan to rule the country for two years was not longer tenable.[7] Parliamentary elections were held in November 2011, and followed by presidential elections organized from May till June 2012. The legislative elections led to a victory of Islamist parties, with the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party occupying the majority of parliamentary seats and the Salafist's al-Nour Party winning another quarter of the seats.[33] The remaining seats were for liberal, independent and secular politicians.[31] In mid-2012, the SCAF relied on its popular legitimacy to issue a constitutional declaration, including the amendments approved by the referendum, which gave the military officials exclusive political powers and limited the power of the next president. Moreover, the Supreme Constitutional Court, its composition being unchanged since the Mubarak regime, issued a judgement during the presidential elections to dissolve the newly-elected parliament. These actions were a blow to the Muslim Brotherhood and further consolidated the military's role of powerbroker in the post-Mubarak period.[34]

Presidency of Mohamed Morsi

[edit]
Main articles: 2012 Egyptian presidential election, Timeline of the Egyptian Crisis under Mohamed Morsi, and 2012–2013 Egyptian protests

On June 18, 2012, Mohamed Morsi won the presidential election with 51.7% of the vote, in a run-off against Ahmed Shafik, the army-backed candidate who served under Mubarak as prime minister.[31] The 2012 Egyptian Presidential election is marked as the first democratic presidential election in Egypt's history, attended by international observers and deemed a free and fair election.[35] Although only half of the electorate casted its vote, the result was initially widely recognized.[36] However, Morsi's 12-months presidency was a politically turbulent period, facing massive protests for and against his rule, only to be ousted in a military coup in July 2013.[37]

President Morsi, a leading member of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Freedom and Justice Party, resigned from both organizations and was sworn in as the first civilian president of Egypt on 30 June 2012.[34] In August 2012, Morsi sacked military chief Hussein Tantawi by appointing Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, then chief of the military intelligence, as Egypt's new defense minister.[38] The drafting of a new constitution, considered as a central element in the country's transition toward democracy, was criticized for the Islamist's dominance over the process and deeply divided the involved political factions.[39] The withdrawal of some main stakeholders, such as the secularists and the Coptic Christians, resulted in a draft constitution almost entirely written by the Islamist parties. On 22 November 2012, Morsi granted himself the power to protect the constitution writing from dissolution by the court, and the power to legislate without judicial supervision, until a new parliament would be elected.[40] While these unilateral actions were met by massive protests and violent action throughout the country, Morsi submitted the Islamist-backed draft constitution to a referendum, in which 63.8% of the voters approved the text among a low turnout of 32.9% of the electorate.[31] Following the referendum, Morsi signed the new constitution into law, which made it legally binding.

The sovereignty of Morsi's regime was contested by a constellation of forces comprising the military, the security forces, the judiciary, and secularists, in what has been described as a "not-so-secret" parallel government working to take Morsi's government down.[32] During Morsi's one-year presidency, the leaders, institutions, and laws related to these two power blocs both vied for ultimate authority.[41] This "dual sovereignty" constituted a major challenge to Morsi and his regime, and was compounded by disagreement over the constitutional process, mismanagement in dealing with the country's problems, such as shortages of basic necessities, perceived incompetence, and internal problems within the Brotherhood.[32] The legitimacy of Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood suffered from major uprisings against their rule.[42] In February 2013, the Salafist's also withdrew their support from the president and soon after, discontent erupted into a campaign calling for his resignation and into nation-wide demonstrations.

2013 protests and military coup

[edit]
Main articles: June 2013 Egyptian protests and 2013 Egyptian coup d'état

The military, judicial and political opposition, as well as the disappointment of civilians in the autocratic tendencies of the new government, led to a sharp decrease in Morsi's legitimacy.[43] It led to a campaign known as Tamarod, or "rebellion", launched by its corresponding grassroots movement in April 2013, that claimed to have collected 20 millions of signatures on a petition calling for new presidential elections and the suspension of the new constitution.[44] It has been discussed whether Tamarod was an independent revolutionary campaign, or an orchestrated one, funded and supported by the SCAF and/or the Interior Ministry.[32][42] On 30 June 2013, the first anniversary of president Morsi's inauguration was marked by mass demonstrations for, but mostly against, Morsi's rule, in which thousands of protesters surrounded the presidential palace in the Heliopolis suburb demanding the president to step down.[45] The military drew on the public resentment by issuing a 48-hour ultimatum that forced Morsi to reach a compromise with his opponents, but the president did not give in and insisted that he was the legitimate leader.[46]

Crowd estimates of anti-Morsi protesters have been disputed.[47] While most reports refer to a mobilization of "millions of Egyptians", the military disseminated figures of 15 and 17 million, with one military source claiming the number of 30 million, which is highly contested.[48][49][50] Independent observers have set the crowd scale at 1 to 2 million people, demonstrating in nation-wide protests against Morsi.[51]

On 3 July 2013, the Egyptian Armed Forces, headed by Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, acted on its 48-hour ultimatum by carrying out a popularly supported coup d'état ousting president Morsi.[43][52] In one day, the generals subsequently removed Morsi from office and imprisoned him, suspended the constitution, appointed Adly Mansour, chief justice of the Constitutional Court, as interim president, and called for early elections.[32]

Post-coup unrest

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Main article: Post-coup unrest in Egypt (2013–2014)
Rabaa al-Adaweya Square packed with anti-coup supporters.

The coup triggered mass demonstrations of both pro-Morsi and anti-Morsi protesters, often erupting into violent clashes between them.[53] Pro-Morsi protesters amassed near the Rabia Al-Adawiya Mosque, originally to celebrate the one-year anniversary of Morsi's presidency, but their message changed in the wake of his removal into a call for his return to power and a condemnation of the military.[52] In the two months following the coup, security forces violently suppressed pro-Morsi demonstrations, culminating in five separate incidents of mass killings, including the killing of 61 protestors at the Republican Guard headquarters on 8 July 2013.[54] On 14 August 2013, security forces raided the pro-Morsi sit-ins at al-Nahda Square and Rabaa al-Adawiya Square, resulting in a massacre of at least 900 protesters.[55][56][57] Human Rights Watch labeled the aggressive crackdown on mostly peaceful protesters as "serious violations of international human rights law" and most likely crimes against humanity.[58] Subsequent violence led to the death of hundreds more people.[31] The interim military government reacted on violent retaliations by Islamists on government buildings, churches and police stations, by declaring the state of emergency and a curfew, that ultimately lasted three months.[59]

On 24 March 2014, an Egyptian court sentenced 529 suspected members of the Muslim Brotherhood to death, accused of attacking a police station.[60] Since the coup, approximately 60,000 people have been arrested or charged by the Egyptian authorities, with as main target the Muslim Brotherhood.[61]

2014 election of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi

[edit]
Main article: 2014 Egyptian presidential election

General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who led the military coup against President Mohamed Morsi, emerged as a popular figure in Egypt and he eventually ran for presidency in the 2014 elections.[62] In late May 2014, el-Sisi won in a landslide victory with 96.9% of the votes. His only rival in the election was Hamdeen Sabahi and the vote was boycotted by Islamists and many political parties, including the Muslim Brotherhood and many liberal and secular groups.[63][64] The election saw a voter turnout of 47.5%, lower than the 52% turnout in the 2012 presidential election, which prompted the interim government to extend the vote last-minute with a third day.[65] The election result, together with the extension, was denounced by observers as harming democratic standards and the electoral process.[5] Analysts compared the election outcome to the Mubarak-era, in which similar numbers were reported in periodic elections and referenda during his reign as president.[66] Nonetheless, el-Sisi's election was widely recognized by world leaders.[67][68][69] Domestically, hundreds of supporters of the former general celebrated el-Sisi's victory in Cairo's Tahrir Square amid a deeply divided society.[70]

Impact

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Political impact

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Counterrevolution

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In the period between 2011 and 2014, multiple power centers, including the military, the Muslim Brotherhood and secularists, emerged and competed for power. However, the military permanently played a key role throughout the different events that constituted this juncture.[7] The army's generals carefully sought to manage each episode, and succeeded in maintaining power despite the country's political transitions. In fact, the military had always dominated Egypt's politics since the establishment of the first republic in 1952.[17] With the installation of President el-Sisi, who removed Morsi in a military coup, the military's political and economic grip on the state has been fully consolidated in which has been called "a counterrevolutionary regime".[7][71] Meanwhile, there is a maximal repression of the Muslim Brotherhood and other opposition groups(Priewasser). Any form of public dissent, including the right to protest and freedom of the press, is strongly restricted by Sisi's repressive regime.[72] Human rights organizations have accused Sisi's authoritarian regime of using torture and enforced disappearances to crush political opponents and criminal suspects.[73][74]

Sisi's regime is not simply a continuation of Mubarak's repressive rule, but a regime aiming at the eradication of all the revolutionary elements that developed during Mubarak's final years and have thrived since the 2011 uprisings.[7] Sisi's policies of counterrevolution led many analysts to evaluate the Egyptian revolution as a "failed revolution".[12][13][14][15] However, critics of this view have assessed the period between 2011 and 2014 from a different perspective. It is argued that this period began without clear revolutionary intentions and has been terminated without a revolutionary outcome. Therefore, this turbulent period has also been described as a "revolutionary situation",[7] an "authoritarian breakdown",[9] a "constitutional revolution",[10] and, as a "revolutionary process" followed by "two waves of counterrevolution".[11] The discussion relates to broader reflections on the Arab Spring, described by Asef Bayat as "political upheavals that were both revolutionary and non-revolutionary".[6]

Sinai insurgency

[edit]
Main article: Sinai insurgency

Since the 2011 collapse of the Mubarak regime, a security vacuum emerged in the Sinai Peninsula which turned it into a site of violent insurgency.[75] Initially, the insurgency involved mainly local Bedouin tribesmen who saw the revolution as an opportunity to oppose the regime's discrimination and to assert their authority in the region.[76] Islamist militants, present in the Sinai with various setbacks since the mid-1970s, exploited the country's instable situation to make a comeback and launched several attacks on Egyptian security forces.[77] Two military campaigns, of which Operation Eagle was initiated by the interim SCAF-regime in 2011, and Operation Sinai by the newly-elected Morsi-regime in 2012, were not successful in eliminating the militant groups from the peninsula. The deposing of the Morsi regime and the brutal repression on pro-Morsi protesters in 2013 further intensified the militants' activities.[78] A wave of attacks on Egyptian security personnel prompted the new authorities to a harsh crackdown on the Islamist militant groups.[79]

In 2014, the most powerful militia in the Sinai, Ansar Bait al-Maqdis, pledged allegiance to the Islamic State and formed their own branch of Islamic State in the Sinai Province.[4] They claimed responsibility over an attack in which more than 30 Egyptian soldiers were killed, being marked as the deadliest assault on security forces since 2011.[78] Multiple major offensives by the Egyptian army since 2014 neither crushed the Bedouin militants, nor the jihadi groups. As a reaction on the aggressive political and military measures, their insurgent actions only became bolder, with waves of attacks in 2015, 2016, and 2017, including on the army, Coptic Christians, and the Sufi community in the region.

Human toll

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At least 7,000 people have died during the crisis covered by this article (2011 to 2014) and the ensuing still ongoing insurgencies.

https://www.thecairoreview.com/essays/explaining-egypts-january-revolution-between-conspiracy-and-conventional-wisdom/

Socio-economic impact

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Egyptian economy is still suffering from a severe downturn following the 2011 revolution and the government faces numerous challenges as to how to restore growth, market and investor confidence. Political and institutional uncertainty, a perception of rising insecurity and sporadic unrest continue to negatively affect economic growth.[83]

Real GDP growth slowed to just 2.2 percent year on year in October–December 2012/13 and investments declined to 13 percent of GDP in July–December 2012. The economic slowdown contributed to a rise in unemployment, which stood at 13 percent at end-December 2012, with 3.5 million people out of work.[83]

See also

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References

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