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In the run up to the 2020 Israeli legislative election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Israel during the term of the 22nd Knesset. This article lists the results of such polls.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous election, held on 17 September 2019, to the present day. The elections are to be held on 2 March 2020.[1] No polls may be published from the end of the Friday before the election until the polling stations closing on election day at 22:00.[2]

Polls are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the highest figures. When a poll has no information on a certain party, that party is instead marked by a dash (–).

Seat projections[edit]

This section displays voting intention estimates referring to a hypothetical Knesset election. The figures listed are Knesset seat counts rather than percentages, unless otherwise stated.

Graphs[edit]

This graph shows the polling trends from the 17 September 2019 Israeli legislative election until election day using 4-poll moving average. Scenario polls are not included here.

For parties not crossing the electoral threshold (currently 3.25%) in any given poll, the number of seats is calculated as a percentage of the 120 total seats.

Polls[edit]

Poll results are listed in the table below. Parties that fall below the electoral threshold are denoted by the percentage of votes that they received (N%) rather than the number of seats they would have gotten.

61 seats are required for a majority in the Knesset.

Color key:

  Poll considering a hypothetical set of party alliances

Date Polling firm Publisher Joint
List 		Labor-
Gesher-Meretz 		Green Blue &
White 		Yisrael
Beiteinu 		Likud New
Right 		Nat.
Union 		United
J. Home 		Shas UTJ L R
Current seats 13 6 4[a] 1[a] 33 8 32 3 2 2 – 9 7 57 55
28 Feb 2020 Election silence starting end of Friday before election day[2]
15 Jan 2020 (10 pm) Deadline to submit the candidate lists[3]
15 Feb 2020 Green Party withdrawal[4]
14 Jan 2020 Beginning of registration for candidate lists[3]
14 Jan 2020 Direct Polls Arutz Sheva[5] 13 10 (2.3%) 34 8 32 7 (2.4%) 8 8 57 55
14 Jan 2020 New Right and National Union merger[6]
13 Jan 2020 Midgam Channel 12[7] 13 9 – 34 7 32 6 4 8 7 56 57
13 9 – 34 7 31 6 5 8 7 56 57
13 9 – 34 7 32 10 8 7 56 57
13 Jan 2020 Labor-Gesher and Meretz merger[8]
Date Polling firm Publisher Joint
List 		Labor-
Gesher 		Dem.
Union 		Green Blue &
White 		Yisrael
Beiteinu 		Likud New
Right 		Nat.
Union 		United
J. Home 		Shas UTJ L R
10 Jan 2020 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[9] 15 5 5 (0.2%) 34 7 30 4 (1%) 5 7 8 59 54
13 11 – 33 7 30 6 (1%) 6 7 7 57 56
14 5 5 – 33 7 29 5 8 7 7 57 56
14 5 5 – 34 7 29 11 7 8 58 55
9 Jan 2020 Midgam Arutz Sheva[10] 13 5 4 – 34 7 32 6 4 8 7 56 57
13 5 4 – 34 7 32 9 (2.7%) 8 8 56 57
8–9 Jan 2020 Panels Politics Makor Rishon[11] 14 5 (2.4%) – 35 8 31 7 – 4 8 8 54 58
14 5 (2.4%) – 35 8 31 7 6 7 7 54 58
14 5 (2.4%) – 35 8 32 10 (2.1%) 8 8 54 58
14 5 (2.4%) – 35 8 33 10 8 7 54 58
8 Jan 2020 Midgam Walla![12] 13 5 4 (0.2%) 35 8 33 6 (1.1%) (2.8%) 8 8 57 55
13 9 – 34 8 32 8 8 8 56 56
7 Jan 2020 Meretz and Democratic Choice agree to run together as the Democratic Union list[13]
2 Jan 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[14] 13 5 4 – 36 6 34 8 (2.9%) 7 7 58 56
13 10 – 35 7 33 8 – 7 7 58 55
2 Jan 2020 Kantar Kan 11[15] 13 6 5 – 35 7 32 5 (3%) 7 8 59 54
2 Jan 2020 Midgam Channel 12[16] 13 5 4[b] (0.0%) 35 8 33 6 (0.9%) (2.6%) 8 8 57 55
13 5 4[b] (0.0%) 34 7 32 6 4 8 7 56 57
1 Jan 2020 Panels Politics Maariv[17] 13 5 (2.9%) – 36 8 30 6 7 8 7 54 58
29 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12[18] 13 5 4 – 34 8 32 5 4 8 7 56 56
26 Dec 2019 Likud reelects Benjamin Netanyahu as its leader[19]
20 Dec 2019 The Jewish Home and Otzma Yehudit agree to run together on a list called United Jewish Home[20]
19 Dec 2019 Stav Shaffir announces independent run with the Green Party[21]
Date Polling firm Publisher Joint
List 		Labor-
Gesher 		Dem.
Union 		Blue &
White 		Yisrael
Beiteinu 		Likud New
Right 		Nat.
Union 		J.
Home 		Otzma
Yehudit 		Shas UTJ L R
19 Dec 2019 Smith 103fm[22] 13 5 4 35 7 32 5 4 8 7 57 56
18 Dec 2019 Panels Politics Makor Rishon[23] 14 5 (2.1%) 38 7 34 7 (2.7%) (1.6%) 9 7 57 56
15 Dec 2019 Kantar Kan 11[24] 13 6 5 35 8 31 6 – – 9 7 59 53
12 Dec 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[25] 14 6 4 37 8 31 5 (2%) (1%) 8 7 61 51
12 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12[26] 13 5 5 35 8 32 6 (2.8%) (1.3%) 8 8 58 54
12 Dec 2019 Smith Maariv[27] 12 5 4 35 7 33 5 4 8 7 56 57
12 Dec 2019 The Knesset is dissolved for lack of a new government[1]
10 Dec 2019 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[28] 13 5 5 37 8 33 6 – – 6 7 60 52
9–10 Dec 2019 Midgam Walla![29] 13 5 4 35 8 33 6 (2.1%) (1.3%) 8 8 57 55
8 Dec 2019 Kantar Kan Radio[30] 13 5 4 35 7 34 6 (2.4%) (1.9%) 8 8 57 56
5 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12[31] 13 5 5 34 8 33 6 (2.2%) (1.9%) 8 8 57 55
5 Dec 2019 Maagar Mochot 103fm[32] 12 4 4 34 8 32 6 4 – 8 8 54 58
28 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[33] 13 4 4 35 8 33 6 (2%) (1%) 9 8 56 56
28 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Maariv[34] 13 4 4 35 8 33 6 – – 9 8 56 56
26–27 Nov 2019 Smith Maariv[35] 13 5 5 35 8 33 6 – – 8 7 58 54
26 Nov 2019 Midgam Channel 12[36][37] 13 5 4 34 9 33 6 (2.3%) (1.2%) 8 8 56 55
25–26 Nov 2019 Midgam Walla![38] 13 5 4 34 8 33 7 (2.3%) (1.2%) 9 7 56 56
25 Nov 2019 Panels Politics Channel 12[39][40] 12 5 4 37 7 30 6 4 – 8 7 58 55
22 Nov 2019 Panel Project HaMidgam
& Statnet 		Channel 13[41][42] 13 4 4 36 8 33 6 4 – 6 6 57 55
21–22 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[43][44] 13 4 6 34 7 33 7 – 8 8 57 56
21 Nov 2019 Kantar Kan 11[45] 12 5 5 33 8 33 5 4 – 7 8 55 57
21 Nov 2019 Attorney General indicts incumbent PM Benjamin Netanyahu on corruption charges[42]
21 Nov 2019 Midgam Channel 12[46] 13 5 5 33 9 33 7 – 8 7 56 55
15 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[47] 13 6 6 33 9 31 5 – 10 7 58 53
10 Nov 2019 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[48] 13 5 4 35 9 34 4 4 – 6 6 57 54
31 Oct 2019 Maagar Mochot 103fm[49] 12 7 5 34 8 33 6 – 9 6 58 54
22 Oct 2019 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[50] 13 5 4 34 8 33 4 5 – 7 7 56 56
10 Oct 2019 The Yamina alliance splits up.
Date Polling firm Publisher Joint
List 		Labor-
Gesher 		Dem.
Union 		Blue &
White 		Yisrael
Beiteinu 		Likud Yamina Otzma
Yehudit 		Shas UTJ L R
3–6 Oct 2019 Midgam Walla![51] 13 6 5 33 7 33 7 – 9 7 57 56
17 Sep 2019 Election results[52] 13 6 5[a] 33 8 32 7 (1.9%) 9 7 57 55

Scenarios[edit]

Gideon Sa'ar

Various polls tested the scenario where Gideon Sa'ar replaces Benjamin Netanyahu as leader of the Likud party. Sa'ar eventually challenged Netanyahu's leadership and lost the internal vote in December.

Color key:

  Speculative poll

Date Polling firm Publisher Joint
List 		Labor-
Gesher-Meretz 		Green Blue &
White 		Yisrael
Beiteinu 		Sa'ar
party 		Likud New
Right 		Nat.
Union 		J.
Home 		Otzma
Yehudit 		Shas UTJ L R
1 Jan 2020 Panels Politics Maariv[17] 13 5 (2.9%) – 36 8 30 6 7 8 7 54 58
13 4 – – 34 7 6 28 6 7 8 7 51 62
26 Dec 2019 Likud reelects Benjamin Netanyahu as its leader[19]
8 Dec 2019 Kantar Kan Radio[30] 13 5 4 35 7 34 6 (2.4%) (1.9%) 8 8 57 56
8 Dec 2019 Kantar Kan 11[53] 13 5 4 33 8 32 8 – – 9 8 55 57
28 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Maariv[34] 13 4 4 35 8 33 6 – – 9 8 56 56
14 4 – 33 9 28 12 – – 11 9 51 60
26–27 Nov 2019 Smith Maariv[35] 13 5 5 35 8 33 6 – – 8 7 58 54
13 5 4 35 7 31 6 4 – 8 7 57 56
26 Nov 2019 Midgam Channel 12[36] 13 5 4 34 9 33 6 (2.3%) (1.2%) 8 8 56 55
13 6 4 35 9 26 9 (2.9%) – 10 8 58 53
Date Polling firm Publisher Joint
List 		Labor-
Gesher 		Dem.
Union 		Blue &
White 		Yisrael
Beiteinu 		Likud Yamina Otzma
Yehudit 		Shas UTJ L R
3–6 Oct 2019 Midgam Walla![51] 13 6 5 33 7 33 7 – 9 7 57 56
13 6 5 33 7 26 12 – 10 8 57 56

Prime minister[edit]

Due to the political deadlock which resulted after the previous election, Shas chairman and Interior Minister Aryeh Deri suggested direct elections for prime minister.[54] Some opinion pollsters have asked voters which party leader they would prefer as prime minister. Their responses are given as percentages in the tables below.

Netanyahu vs Gantz
Date Polling firm Publisher Netanyahu Gantz Neither Don't Know
13 Jan 2020 Midgam Channel 12[7] 39 39 22 –
10 Jan 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[9] 43 38 – 19
2 Jan 2020 Direct Polls Channel 13[55] 48.5 45.9 5.0 0.6
2 Jan 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[14] 41 33 13 12
2 Jan 2020 Midgam Channel 12[16] 40 39 15 6
1 Jan 2020 Panels Politics Maariv[17] 41 40 – 19
29 Dec 2019 Direct Polls Channel 13[55] 47.5 45.0 5.3 2.1
29 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12[18] 40 38 16 6
12 Dec 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[25] 42 40 – 18
12 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12[26] 38 37 19 6
9–10 Dec 2019 Midgam Walla![29] 37 38 16 9
8 Dec 2019 Kantar Kan Radio[30] 41 38 21 –
5 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12[31] 39 37 17 7
28 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[33] 45 39 – 16
26 Nov 2019 Midgam Channel 12[36] 40 39 14 7
21–22 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[43] 44 37 – 19
15 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[47] 43 41 – 16
11 Nov 2019 Midgam Army Radio[56] 44 39 – –
10 Nov 2019 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[48] 40 37 – 23
5 Nov 2019 Midgam Channel 12[54] 40 36 24
Sa'ar vs Gantz
Date Polling firm Publisher Sa'ar Gantz Neither Don't Know
12 Dec 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[25] 31 36 – 33
12 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12[26] 22 36 30 12
8 Dec 2019 Kantar Kan Radio[30] 28 36 36 –
5 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12[31] 19 36 31 14
26 Nov 2019 Midgam Channel 12[36] 23 40 24 13

Coalition[edit]

Some opinion pollsters have asked voters which coalition they would prefer. The tables below list their responses as percentages.

National unity government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu
Date Polling firm Publisher Support Oppose Don't Know
3–6 Oct 2019 Midgam Walla![51] 42 50 8
Minority government backed by the Joint List
Date Polling firm Publisher Support Oppose
11 Nov 2019 Midgam Army Radio[56] 34 59
Government headed by Benny Gantz
Date Polling firm Publisher National unity government Center-left &
Yisrael Beiteinu 		Other
with Netanyahu without Netanyahu
with Haredim without Haredim with Haredim
9 Nov 2019 Midgam Channel 12[57] 29.1 17.9 20.3 3.2 19 10.5
General
Date Polling firm Publisher Unity Right Left Don't Know
w/o right-wing block w/ right-wing block
12 Dec 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[25] 30 19 20 15 16
21 Nov 2019 Kantar Kan 11[45] 40 24 15 –
15 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[47] 40 28 17 15

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b c Meretz (3 MKs), the Israel Democratic Party (1 MK, now Democratic Choice) and the Green Movement (1 MK) fought the September 2019 elections together under the name Democratic Union.
  2. ^ a b Meretz only (thus without the Israel Democratic Party).

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b Staff writer (12 December 2019). "Israel calls another election for March 2, the third in a year". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 12 December 2019.
  2. ^ a b s:he:חוק הבחירות (דרכי תעמולה)#סעיף 16ה (ח) (in Hebrew)
  3. ^ a b Gil Hoffman (14 January 2020). "Fewer parties expected to register to run in March 2 election". The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved 13 January 2020.
  4. ^ Gil Hoffman (15 January 2020). "Stav Shaffir, once a star MK, announces break from politics". The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved 15 January 2020.
  5. ^ Mordechai Sones (14 January 2020). "New poll shows 7 Knesset seats for Bennett-Shaked-Smotrich list". Arutz Sheva. Retrieved 14 January 2020.
  6. ^ Alexander Fulbright & Jacob Magid (14 January 2020). "New Right, National Union agree on joint run, call for Jewish Home to join them". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 14 January 2020.
  7. ^ a b Amit Segal (13 January 2020). "סקר מנדטים מעודכן: איך משפיע האיחוד בשמאל ואיחוד אפשרי בימין?". mako (in Hebrew). Retrieved 13 January 2020.
  8. ^ Gil Hoffman (13 January 2020). "Amir Peretz and Nitzan Horowitz reach deal on Labor-Meretz joint ticket". The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved 13 January 2020.
  9. ^ a b Mati Tuchfeld (10 January 2020). "סקר "ישראל היום" ו"מאגר מוחות": גם איחודים לא משנים את מפת הגושים". Israel Hayom (in Hebrew). Retrieved 10 January 2020.
  10. ^ "סקרים חדשים: רשימה של סמוטריץ והימין החדש מזנקת". Arutz Sheva (in Hebrew). 9 January 2020. Retrieved 9 January 2020.
  11. ^ Shirit Avitan Cohen (9 January 2020). "סקר החיבורים בימין: ריצה בנפרד עשויה להניב שני מנדטים". Makor Rishon (in Hebrew). Retrieved 10 January 2020.
  12. ^ Tal Shalev (9 January 2020). "חיבורים בימין ובשמאל לא ישפיעו משמעותית על מפת הגושים". Walla! (in Hebrew). Retrieved 9 January 2020.
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  17. ^ a b c Arik Bender (3 January 2020). "סקר מעריב: כחול לבן פותחת פער של 6 מנדטים מהליכוד". Maariv (in Hebrew). Retrieved 3 January 2020.
  18. ^ a b Daphna Liel (29 December 2019). "64 יום לבחירות 2020: תיקו בין הגושים, איחוד הבית היהודי ועוצמה יהודית מעל לאחוז החסימה. סקר המנדטים המלא". mako. Retrieved 29 December 2019.
  19. ^ a b Oliver Holmes (26 December 2019). "Israel: Netanyahu wins landslide in battle for Likud party leadership". The Guardian. Retrieved 27 December 2019.
  20. ^ Rossella Tercatin (20 December 2019). "Religious Zionist Bayit Yehudi and far-right Otzma Yehudit to run together". The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved 20 December 2019.
  21. ^ Staff writer (19 December 2019). "Left-wing MK Shaffir says planning to run independently in elections". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 23 December 2019.
  22. ^ "Poll: Right-wing bloc has 56 seats when headed by Netanyahu". Arutz Sheva. 19 December 2019. Retrieved 19 December 2019.
  23. ^ David Rosenberg (20 December 2019). "Poll: Blue & White surges to 38 seats, Meretz plummets". Arutz Sheva. Retrieved 20 December 2019.
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  26. ^ a b c "1st Poll of 2020 Election: Blue & White 35, Likud 32, Joint List 13, Yisrael Beitenu 8, UTJ 8, Shas 8, HaYamin HeHadash 6". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. 12 December 2019. Retrieved 12 December 2019.
  27. ^ Arik Bender (13 December 2019). "סקר "מעריב": כחול לבן 35, הליכוד 33, ליברמן ממשיך להחזיק במפתח". Maariv (in Hebrew). Retrieved 13 December 2019.
  28. ^ "20th Poll of Possible 3rd Election: Blue & White 37, Likud 33, Joint List 13, Yisrael Beitenu 8, UTJ 7, Shas 6, HaYamin HeHadash 6". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. 10 December 2019. Retrieved 10 December 2019.
  29. ^ a b טל שלו (10 December 2019). "סקר וואלה! NEWS: כחול לבן מתחזקת לאחר ביטול הרוטציה בהנהגה". Walla! (in Hebrew). Retrieved 10 December 2019.
  30. ^ a b c d "18th Poll of Possible 3rd Election: Blue & White 35, Likud 34, Joint List 13, Shas 8, UTJ 8, Yisrael Beitenu 7, HaYamin HeHadash 6". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. 9 December 2019. Retrieved 9 December 2019.
  31. ^ a b c Daphna Liel (6 December 2019). "מסתמן: הבחירות הבאות - ב-3.3.2020". Mako (in Hebrew). Retrieved 6 December 2019.
  32. ^ Jeremy Saltan (5 December 2019). "16th Poll of Possible 3rd Election: Blue & White 34, Likud 32, Joint List 12, Shas 8, UTJ 8, Yisrael Beitenu 8, HaYamin HeHadash 6". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. Retrieved 5 December 2019.
  33. ^ a b Jeremy Saltan (28 November 2019). "14th Poll of Possible 3rd Election: Blocs tied at 56-56; Other additional questions answered". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. Retrieved 29 November 2019.
  34. ^ a b Jeremy Saltan (28 November 2019). "13th Poll of Possible 3rd Election: Blue & White 35, Likud 33, Joint List 13, Shas 9, Yisrael Beitenu 8, UTJ 8, HaYamin HeHadash 6; Scenario Poll gives Saar-led-Likud a Right Bloc of 60". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. Retrieved 28 November 2019.
  35. ^ a b "סקר מעריב: הליכוד גדול יותר עם נתניהו, אך גוש הימין מתחזק כשסער בראש". Maariv (in Hebrew). 29 November 2019. Retrieved 29 November 2019.
  36. ^ a b c d Amit Segal (26 November 2019). "סקר החדשות: כמה מנדטים יביא גדעון סער אם יעמוד בראש הליכוד?". mako (in Hebrew). Retrieved 26 November 2019.
  37. ^ Jeremy Saltan (26 November 2019). "12th Poll of Possible 3rd Election: Blue & White 34, Likud 33, Joint List 13, Yisrael Beitenu 9, Shas 8, UTJ 8, HaYamin HeHadash 6". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. Retrieved 27 November 2019.
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  39. ^ "סקר מנדטים: כחול לבן פותחת פער של שבעה מנדטים על הליכוד". mako (in Hebrew). 26 November 2019. Retrieved 26 November 2019.
  40. ^ David Rosenberg (26 November 2019). "Poll: Blue and White leads Likud, left-wing bloc leads Right". Arutz Sheva. Retrieved 26 November 2019.
  41. ^ Ayala Hasson-Nesher (22 November 2019). "סקר: 56% מאמינים שנתניהו לא יכול להמשיך לכהן; גנץ מתחזק". Channel 13 (in Hebrew). Retrieved 24 November 2019.
  42. ^ a b Staff writer (22 November 2019). "Poll finds most Israelis think Netanyahu must step down now charges announced". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 22 November 2019.
  43. ^ a b איתן אורקיבי (24 November 2019). "64%: הגשת כתב האישום לא תשנה את ההצבעה שלנו". Israel Hayom (in Hebrew). Retrieved 24 November 2019.
  44. ^ Jeremy Saltan (24 November 2019). "8th Poll of Possible 3rd Election: Blue & White 34, Likud 33, Joint List 13, Shas 8, UTJ 8". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. Retrieved 4 December 2019.
  45. ^ a b Jeremy Saltan (24 November 2019). "7th Poll of Possible 3rd Election: Likud 33, Blue & White 33, Joint List 12, Yisrael Beitenu 8, UTJ, 8, Shas 7". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. Retrieved 24 November 2019.
  46. ^ Amit Segal (21 November 2019). "סקר אחרי החזרת המנדט: תיקו בצמרת, ליברמן מתחזק‎". mako (in Hebrew). Retrieved 22 November 2019.
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  57. ^ "Poll: Majority against a Palestinian state". Arutz Sheva. 9 November 2019. Retrieved 12 November 2019.
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