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User:Mike Young/Sandbox15

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Forecast of Libya from 6th October 2011

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Assumption: Split amongst NTC fighters (Spilt most extreme in Tripoli)

  • Split into two groups on religious and geographic grounds, an extreme and less extreme
  • Split between Salafists (from Misrata) and less extreme Maliki School (Libyan Muslim Brotherhood) backed by fighters from the north (Zintan).
    • Abdul Hakim Balhadj (Libyan Muslim Brotherhood) sides on Maliki (less extreme) side
    • Ali Salabi sides with more extreme faction
  • Libyan Muslim Brotherhood have more support from NTC and denounce violence against the NTC
  • Misratah Salafists also denounce violence against the NTC
  • However “Grass roots” terrorism (acts by individuals without the control or support of the leadership of any of the parties) starts up
    • Starts in Tripoli
    • Targeting of NTC, rather than western, assets
    • Foreign Volunteers (e.g. from AQIM) also to take part
    • One of the effects of this is that the abuse of suspected mercenaries continues
  • NTC energies spent on negotiations with the parties over definition of what a “Good” Islamic state is with “Moderate” Sharia Law using “Islamic Principles”, rather than with the West
    • However, the NTC remain keen for the new state to keep the trust of the West
    • The West’s views against Sharia law harden…
    • BUT despite this the West still steers clear of actually of officially demanding the end of Sharia law, or bargaining about the “Sharia Law” card
  • Brotherhood invited to work alongside the NTC
  • Salafists continue to refuse to disband Militias before war is won
  • There is an agreement to integrate militias into security apparatus (as in Afghanistan)
    • Salafist miltias integrated
    • Libyan Muslim Brotherhood forces integrated
  • The West accuses the NTC of making decisions that it has no authority to make (such as the decision to implement Sharia Law)
  • There is an eventual agreement that Sharia law will be decided on a local basis, via referenda etc. after or alongside the elections This will means that some geographical areas inside Libya may have a different interpretation of Sharia law to others (or indeed not have Sharia Law at all)
  • The West formally asks NTC to recognize Israel
    • The NTC refuses
  • Attitudes towards revenge on Gaddafi and his allies soften
  • The NTC sets up of a “Truth and Reconciliation” committee
    • Looking at things in the Gaddafi era only
    • Under UN supervision
    • With no punishment for Gaddafi era crimes
  • The NTC draws up detailed time line for elections
    • Under UN supervision
  • Salafists are brought into negotiations
    • And feel less likely to endorse violent means to achieve their ends as they are involved
  • Bani Walid not attacked
    • Peace declared whilst Bani Walid still holds out
  • NATO gives support to the NTC (Misratah Salafist) fighters attempting to capture Sirte
    • With the agreement of the UN
    • The support in the orm of Close Air Support
  • Sirte falls
    • Before Bani Walid
  • UK sends trade delegation
    • Aid “linked to” success of this trade delegation