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2019 St Isidore federal election

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All 59 seats in the House of Representatives
30 seats are needed for a majority
All 14 seats in the Senate
Turnout71.22%
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader John Kaneko Bill Williams Anne Martin
Party National Party Liberal Progressive
Leader since 2014 2018 2017
Leader's seat Corse (CS) Senator from Tichenor Mount Pleasant North
Last election 14 seats, 24.5% 13 seats, 22.2% 12 seats, 20.9%
Seats won 20 seats 11 seats 11 seats
Seat change Increase 6 Decrease 2 Decrease 1
Popular vote 122, 596 68, 552 67, 464
Percentage 33.8% 18.9% 18.6%
Swing Increase 9.3 Decrease 3.3 Decrease 2.3

  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Dick Baldwin Margaret McAllum
Party Labour Conservative
Leader since 2011 2012
Leader's seat List Member List Member
Last election 8 seats, 13.1% 4 seats, 6.4%
Seats won 7 seats 3 seats
Seat change Decrease 1 Decrease 1
Popular vote 40, 986 19, 949
Percentage 11.3% 5.5%
Swing Decrease 1.8 Decrease 0.9

Premier before election

John Kaneko
National coalition

Subsequent Prime Minister

John Kaneko
National coalition

The 2019 St Isidore federal election was held on Saturday 19 October 2019 to elect members of the 74th Parliament of St Isidore. The election had been called following the dissolution of the 73rd Parliament as elected at the 2016 St Isidore federal election. All 59 seats in the House of Representatives (lower house) and all 14 in the Senate (upper house) were up for election.

The second-term incumbent minority National Coalition Government, led by Premier John Kaneko, won a third three-year term by defeating the opposition Liberal Party, led by Opposition Leader Bill Williams. The National Party continued a minority with 20 seats, the Liberal Party finished with 11, and the Progressive Party also won 11, whilst the remaining seventeen seats were won by the Labour Party, Independent Conservatives, Christian Conservatives, Green Party, Libertarian Party and one independent.

The result was the first time since 2002 that a party had won with more than 30% of the popular vote. The National Party benefited from a stronger-than-expected showing in Tichenor, as well as in a decrease in votes for the Christian Conservatives, who won 4.4% of the vote. On election night, Williams declared his intention to stand down as leader of his party, but to remain in parliament.[1]

Results

[edit]

House of Representatives

[edit]
House of Representatives – Turnout 71.22%
Party Votes % Swing (pp) Seats Change (seats)
  National 122,596 33.8 +9.3 20 Increase 6
  Liberal 68,552 18.9 -3.3 11 Decrease 2
  Progressive 488,817 3.43 +3.43 0 Steady
  One Nation 438,587 3.08 +1.79 0 Steady
  Katter's Australian 69,736 0.49 −0.05 1 Steady
  Centre Alliance 46,931 0.33 −1.52 1 Steady
  Independents 479,836 3.37 +0.56 3 Increase 1
  Other 587,528 4.12 −2.38 0 Steady
Total 14,253,393 100.00 151 Increase 1
Two-party-preferred vote
  Liberal/National Coalition 7,344,813 51.53 +1.17
  Labor 6,908,580 48.47 −1.17
Invalid/blank votes 835,223 5.54 +0.49
Registered voters/turnout 16,419,543 91.89 +0.89
Source: AEC Tally Room

Independents: Andrew Wilkie (Clark), Helen Haines (Indi), Zali Steggall (Warringah).


Popular vote
Labor
33.34%
Liberal
27.99%
Greens
10.40%
LNP (QLD)
8.67%
National
4.51%
UAP
3.43%
One Nation
3.08%
Katter's
0.49%
Centre Alliance
0.33%
CLP (NT)
0.27%
Independents
3.37%
Other
4.12%
Two-party-preferred vote
Coalition
51.53%
Labor
48.47%
Seats
Coalition
50.99%
Labor
45.03%
Greens
0.66%
Centre Alliance
0.66%
Katter's
0.66%
Independents
1.99%

Divisions changing party

[edit]

Members in italics did not re-contest their House of Representatives seats at this election.[2]

Seat Pre-election Swing Post-election
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Bass, TAS Labor Ross Hart 5.42 5.83 0.41 Bridget Archer Liberal
Braddon, TAS Labor Justine Keay 1.73 4.82 3.09 Gavin Pearce Liberal
Chisholm, VIC Independent Julia Banks[1] 2.91 −2.34 0.57 Gladys Liu Liberal
Corangamite, VIC Liberal[2] Sarah Henderson −0.03 1.04 1.07 Libby Coker Labor
Dunkley, VIC Liberal[2] Chris Crewther −1.03 1.71 2.74 Peta Murphy Labor
Gilmore, NSW Liberal Ann Sudmalis 0.73 3.34 2.61 Fiona Phillips Labor
Herbert, QLD Labor Cathy O'Toole 0.02 8.38 8.36 Phillip Thompson Liberal National
Lindsay, NSW Labor Emma Husar 1.11 6.15 5.04 Melissa McIntosh Liberal
Indi, VIC Independent Cathy McGowan 5.10 −4.13 1.39 Helen Haines Independent
Longman, QLD Labor Susan Lamb 0.79 4.07 3.28 Terry Young Liberal National
Warringah, NSW Liberal Tony Abbott 11.09 N/A 7.24 Zali Steggall Independent
Wentworth, NSW Independent Kerryn Phelps 1.22 N/A 1.31 Dave Sharma Liberal

Notes

1 Julia Banks was elected as the Liberal member for Chisholm in 2016, but resigned from the party in November 2018 and sat as an independent. She retired from Chisholm to contest the seat of Flinders.

2 As a result of the 2018 boundary redistribution, the Victorian Liberal-held seats of Corangamite and Dunkley became notionally marginal Labor seats.

Senate

[edit]
Government (35)
Coalition
  Liberal (26)
  Liberal National (6)[a]
  National (2)
  Country Liberal (1)[b]

Opposition (26)
  Labor (26)

Crossbench (15)
  Greens (9)
  Centre Alliance (2)
  One Nation (2)
  Lambie Network (1)
  Independent (1)[c]  
  1. ^ Four Liberal National Party of Queensland (LNP) senators sat in the Liberals party room, while two senators sat in the Nationals party room.
  2. ^ Sat in the Nationals party room.
  3. ^ The independent senator was Cory Bernardi (South Australia). The party he was the leader of, the Australian Conservatives, was formally deregistered on 25 June 2019.

Out of 40 Senate seats up for election, the Coalition won 19, while Labor won 13 seats. The Greens won 6 seats, while the only other minor party candidates elected were former senator Malcolm Roberts for One Nation in Queensland, and Jacqui Lambie (JLN) in Tasmania. The Senate crossbench became substantially smaller, with incumbent senators Derryn Hinch, Duncan Spender, Peter Georgiou, Brian Burston, and Fraser Anning, as well as former parliamentarians Clive Palmer and Skye Kakoschke-Moore, failing in their bids to win Senate seats.[3]

Senate (STV) – Turnout 92.48% (CV)
Party Votes % ± Seats
Seats
won
Not
up
New
total
Seat
change
  Liberal/National Coalition
  Liberal/National joint ticket 3,152,483 21.59 +1.57 6 6 12 Increase 2
  Liberal 1,204,039 8.24 +0.53 9 7 16 Increase 2
  Liberal National (Qld) 1,128,730 7.73 +0.79 3 3 6 Increase 1
  Country Liberal (NT) 38,513 0.26 −0.00 1 0 1 Steady
  National 24,377 0.17 −0.08 0 0 0 Steady
Coalition total 5,548,142 37.99 +2.80 19 16 35 Increase 5
  Labor 4,204,313 28.79 −1.01 13 13 26 Steady
  Greens 1,488,427 10.19 +1.54 6 3 9 Steady
  One Nation 788,203 5.40 +1.12 1 1 2 Decrease 2
  United Australia 345,199 2.36 +1.86 0 0 0 Steady
  Liberal Democrats 169,735 1.16 −1.00 0 0 0 Decrease 1
  Justice 105,459 0.72 −1.20 0 0 0 Decrease 1
  Conservatives 102,769 0.70 +0.70 0 1 1 Steady
  Lambie Network 31,383 0.21 −0.28 1 0 1 Steady
  Centre Alliance 28,416 0.19 −3.10 0 2 2 Decrease 1
  Other 1,792,879 12.28 +0.70 0 0 0 Steady
Total 14,604,925 100.00 40 36 76
Invalid/blank votes 579,160 3.81 −0.13
Registered voters/turnout 16,419,543 92.48 +0.55
Source: AEC Tally Room
Popular vote
Labor
28.79%
Liberal/National
21.59%
Greens
10.19%
Liberal
8.24%
LNP (QLD)
7.73%
One Nation
5.40%
CLP (NT)
0.26%
Lambie
0.21%
National
0.17%
Other
17.41%
Seats
Coalition
47.50%
Labor
32.50%
Greens
15.00%
One Nation
2.5%
CLP (NT)
2.5%
Lambie
2.5%

Background

[edit]

Previous election

[edit]

The outcome of the 2016 federal election could not be determined on election night, with too many seats in doubt.[4][5][6] After a week of vote counting, neither the incumbent Turnbull Government led by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull of the Liberal/National Coalition nor the Shorten Opposition led by Opposition Leader Bill Shorten of the Australian Labor Party had won enough seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives to form a majority government.[7][8][9][10]

During the uncertain week following the election, Turnbull negotiated with the crossbench and secured confidence and supply support from Bob Katter and from independents Andrew Wilkie and Cathy McGowan in the event of a hung parliament and resulting minority government.[11] During crossbench negotiations, Turnbull pledged additional staff and resources for crossbenchers, and stated "It is my commitment to work in every way possible to ensure that the crossbenchers have access to all of the information they need and all of the resources they need to be able to play the role they need in this parliament".[12]

On 10 July, eight days after the election took place and following Turnbull's negotiations with the crossbench where he secured sufficient confidence and supply support, Shorten conceded defeat, acknowledging that the incumbent Coalition had enough seats to form either a minority or majority government. Turnbull claimed victory later that day.[13] In the closest federal majority result since the 1961 election, the ABC declared on 11 July that the incumbent Coalition would be able to form a one-seat majority government.[14]

It was the first election result since federation where the post-election opposition won more seats than the post-election government in both of Australia's two most populous states, New South Wales and Victoria.[15]

Result

[edit]
Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott lost his seat at the 2019 election after 25 years as Member for Warringah

In the 150-seat House of Representatives, the one-term incumbent Liberal/National Coalition government suffered a 14-seat swing, reducing it to 76 seats—a bare one-seat majority. With a national three-point two-party swing against the government, the Labor opposition picked up a significant number of previously government-held seats to gain a total of 69 seats. On the crossbench, the Greens, the Nick Xenophon Team, Katter's Australian Party, and independents Wilkie and McGowan won a seat each. On 19 July, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) announced a re-count for the Coalition-held but provisionally Labor-won Division of Herbert. At the start of the Herbert re-count, Labor led by eight votes.[16][17] The AEC announced on 31 July that Labor had won Herbert by 37 votes.[18][19]

The final outcome in the 76-seat Senate took more than four weeks to determine, despite significant voting changes. Earlier in 2016, legislation changed the Senate voting system from a full-preference single transferable vote with group voting tickets to an optional-preferential single transferable vote.[20] The final Senate result was announced on 4 August: Liberal/National Coalition 30 seats (−3), Labor 26 seats (+1), Greens 9 seats (−1), One Nation 4 seats (+4) and Nick Xenophon Team 3 seats (+2). Derryn Hinch won a seat, while Jacqui Lambie, Liberal Democrat David Leyonhjelm and Family First's Bob Day retained their seats. The number of crossbenchers increased by two to a record 20. The Liberal/National Coalition will require at least nine additional votes to reach a Senate majority, an increase of three.[21][22][23] The Liberal and Labor parties agreed to support a motion in the parliament that the first six senators elected in each state would serve a six-year term, while the last six elected would serve a three-year term.[24][25]

Changes in parliamentary composition

[edit]

Since the 2016 election, a number of parliamentarians resigned from their seats, while some were disqualified by the High Court of Australia in the parliamentary eligibility crisis as a result of the dual citizenship of some MPs. However, in the cases of disqualified House of Representatives MPs, most of these were returned in resulting by-elections. Some MPs changed their party affiliation or their independent status.

Changes in parliamentary composition
Seat Before Change After
Member Party Type Date Date Member Party
Vic (Senate) Stephen Conroy Labor Resignation 30 September 2016 25 October 2016 Kimberley Kitching Labor
SA (Senate) Bob Day Family First Resignation, disqualification 1 November 2016 19 April 2017 Lucy Gichuhi Family First
WA (Senate) Rod Culleton One Nation Departure from party 18 December 2016 Rod Culleton Independent
Independent Disqualification 11 January 2017 27 March 2017 Peter Georgiou One Nation
SA (Senate) Cory Bernardi Liberal Formation of new party 7 February 2017 Cory Bernardi Conservatives
SA (Senate) Lucy Gichuhi Family First Refusal to join party merger 3 May 2017 Lucy Gichuhi Independent
WA (Senate) Scott Ludlam Greens Resignation, disqualification 14 July 2017 10 November 2017 Jordon Steele-John Greens
Qld (Senate) Larissa Waters Greens 18 July 2017 10 November 2017 Andrew Bartlett Greens
WA (Senate) Chris Back Liberal Resignation 31 July 2017 16 August 2017 Slade Brockman Liberal
Qld (Senate) Malcolm Roberts One Nation Disqualification 27 October 2017 10 November 2017 Fraser Anning One Nation
New England Barnaby Joyce National 2 December 2017 Barnaby Joyce
(re-elected)
National
NSW (Senate) Fiona Nash National 22 December 2017 Jim Molan Liberal
SA (Senate) Nick Xenophon Xenophon Team Resignation 31 October 2017 14 November 2017 Rex Patrick Xenophon Team
Tas (Senate) Stephen Parry Liberal Resignation, disqualification 2 November 2017 9 February 2018 Richard Colbeck Liberal
Bennelong John Alexander Liberal Resignation 11 November 2017 16 December 2017 John Alexander
(re-elected)
Liberal
Tas (Senate) Jacqui Lambie Lambie Network Resignation, disqualification 14 November 2017 9 February 2018 Steve Martin Independent
SA (Senate) Skye Kakoschke-Moore Xenophon Team 22 November 2017 16 February 2018 Tim Storer Independent
Qld (Senate) Fraser Anning One Nation Departure from party 15 January 2018 Fraser Anning Independent
NSW (Senate) Sam Dastyari Labor Resignation 25 January 2018 14 February 2018 Kristina Keneally Labor
Batman David Feeney Labor Resignation 1 February 2018 17 March 2018 Ged Kearney Labor
SA (Senate) Lucy Gichuhi Independent Party membership 2 February 2018 Lucy Gichuhi Liberal
Qld (Senate) George Brandis LNP Resignation 8 February 2018 21 March 2018 Amanda Stoker LNP
ACT (Senate) Katy Gallagher Labor Disqualification 9 May 2018 23 May 2018 David Smith Labor
Perth Tim Hammond Labor Resignation 10 May 2018 28 July 2018 Patrick Gorman Labor
Braddon Justine Keay Labor Resignation Justine Keay
(re-elected)
Labor
Fremantle Josh Wilson Labor Josh Wilson
(re-elected)
Labor
Longman Susan Lamb Labor Susan Lamb
(re-elected)
Labor
Mayo Rebekha Sharkie Centre Alliance 11 May 2018 Rebekha Sharkie
(re-elected)
Centre Alliance
Tas (Senate) Steve Martin Independent Party membership 28 May 2018 Steve Martin National
Qld (Senate) Fraser Anning Independent Party membership 4 June 2018 Fraser Anning Katter's Australian
NSW (Senate) Brian Burston One Nation Departure from party 14 June 2018 Brian Burston Independent
Independent Party membership 18 June 2018 United Australia
NSW (Senate) Lee Rhiannon Greens Resignation 15 August 2018 Mehreen Faruqi Greens
Qld (Senate) Andrew Bartlett Greens Resignation 27 August 2018 6 September 2018 Larissa Waters Greens
Wentworth Malcolm Turnbull Liberal Resignation 31 August 2018 20 October 2018 Kerryn Phelps Independent
Qld (Senate) Fraser Anning Katter's Australian Departure from party 25 October 2018 Fraser Anning Independent
Chisholm Julia Banks Liberal Departure from party 27 November 2018 Julia Banks Independent
Tas (Senate) David Bushby Liberal Resignation 21 January 2019 6 March 2019 Wendy Askew Liberal
Vic (Senate) Jacinta Collins Labor Resignation 15 February 2019 Raff Ciccone Labor
NSW (Senate) David Leyonhjelm Liberal Democrats Resignation 1 March 2019 20 March 2019 Duncan Spender Liberal Democrats
Qld (Senate) Fraser Anning Independent Formation of new party 4 April 2019 Fraser Anning Conservative National Party
ACT (Senate) David Smith Labor Resignation 11 April 2019 vacant
SA (Senate) Cory Bernardi Conservatives Party deregistration 24 June 2019[a] Cory Bernardi Independent
  1. ^ The party deregistration was after the 2019 election but before the start of the 46th Parliament

Following the parliamentary eligibility crisis, the AEC's form for nomination was updated to ask detailed questions on whether candidates are disqualified under Section 44 of the Constitution of Australia. Three Victorian Liberal candidates had to withdraw based on section 44 issues.[26]

Change of Prime Minister

[edit]

Following the Liberal Party leadership spill on 24 August 2018, Malcolm Turnbull was replaced as Prime Minister by Scott Morrison. Turnbull resigned from parliament on 31 August, triggering a by-election in his former seat of Wentworth.[27] The by-election was won by independent Kerryn Phelps. This, combined with National MP Kevin Hogan's move to the crossbench and the resignation of MP Julia Banks from the Liberal Party, reduced the government to 73 seats going into the election; a net three-seat deficit.

Further dissatisfaction within the Liberal Party saw a number of centrist and economically-liberal candidates announce that they would nominate as independents in wealthy electorates, with a specific focus on "addressing climate change".[28][29]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Australian PM celebrates 'miracle' win". 18 May 2019. Archived from the original on 17 May 2019. Retrieved 18 May 2019 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
  2. ^ "Federal Election 2019 Results". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Archived from the original on 19 May 2019. Retrieved 19 May 2019.
  3. ^ "Senate Results". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Archived from the original on 18 May 2019. Retrieved 19 May 2019.
  4. ^ "Swing against Malcolm Turnbull's Coalition leaves election on a knife-edge". ABC News. Australia. 2 July 2016. Archived from the original on 21 July 2016.
  5. ^ "We don't have a winner, so what happens now?". ABC News. Australia. 3 July 2016. Archived from the original on 19 July 2016.
  6. ^ "How the night unfolded with no clear winner". The Guardian. Australia. 3 July 2016. Archived from the original on 8 July 2016.
  7. ^ "Election 2016: Ballot count could take a month to finalise, AEC says". ABC News. Australia. 4 July 2016. Archived from the original on 5 July 2016. Retrieved 4 July 2016.
  8. ^ Gough, Deborah (3 July 2016). "Australian federal election 2016: No results until at least ... Tuesday". Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 4 July 2016. Retrieved 4 July 2016.
  9. ^ "Liberals 'cautiously optimistic' on majority". Sky News Australia. 4 July 2016. Archived from the original on 4 July 2016. Retrieved 4 July 2016.
  10. ^ Hunter, Fergus (4 July 2016). "Australian federal election 2016: Bill Shorten says Malcolm Turnbull 'should quit'". Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 5 July 2016. Retrieved 4 July 2016.
  11. ^ "Bill Shorten predicts second poll as Cathy McGowan offers Coaltion support". The Sydney Morning Herald. 8 July 2016. Archived from the original on 12 July 2016.
  12. ^ "Malcolm Turnbull claims victory after Bill Shorten concedes defeat". ABC News. Australia. 10 July 2016. Archived from the original on 10 July 2016.
  13. ^ Ross, Monique (10 July 2016). "Election 2016: Malcolm Turnbull claims victory after Bill Shorten concedes defeat". ABC News. Australia. Archived from the original on 10 July 2016. Retrieved 10 July 2016.
  14. ^ "Election 2016: LNP retains Capricornia, gives Coalition 76-seat majority government". ABC News. Australia. 11 July 2016. Retrieved 11 July 2016.
  15. ^ "Australian Politics and Elections Database: University of Western Australia". Elections.uwa.edu.au. 13 March 2018. Archived from the original on 18 January 2015. Retrieved 19 March 2018.
  16. ^ "Statement from the Australian Electoral Commission: Recount in the Division of Herbert" (Press release). Australian Electoral Commission. 19 July 2016. Archived from the original on 24 July 2016. Retrieved 25 July 2016.
  17. ^ "Federal Election 2016 Results". Australia Votes. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 3 July 2016. Archived from the original on 4 July 2016. Retrieved 3 July 2016.
  18. ^ "Labor wins seat of Herbert after recount". Abc.net.au. 31 July 2016. Archived from the original on 14 August 2016. Retrieved 11 August 2016.
  19. ^ Federal Politics (31 July 2016). "Labor takes seat of Herbert, leaving Malcolm Turnbull with majority of just one seat". Smh.com.au. Archived from the original on 15 August 2016. Retrieved 11 August 2016.
  20. ^ Hasham, Nicole (3 July 2016). "Election 2016 results: Senate count throws up a wild mix as One Nation, Fred Nile, Liberal Democrats vie for seats". news.com.au. Archived from the original on 5 July 2016. Retrieved 3 July 2016.
  21. ^ "AEC". Twitter. Archived from the original on 6 August 2016. Retrieved 11 August 2016.
  22. ^ "Federal Election 2016: Senate Results". Australia Votes. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 3 July 2016. Archived from the original on 8 July 2016. Retrieved 4 July 2016.
  23. ^ "Senate photo finishes". crikey.com.au. 12 July 2016. Archived from the original on 13 July 2016. Retrieved 30 July 2016.
  24. ^ Hutchens, Gareth (12 August 2016). "Senate terms: Derryn Hinch and Greens' Lee Rhiannon given three years". The Guardian. Australia. ISSN 1756-3224. OCLC 60623878. Archived from the original on 24 March 2019. Retrieved 12 August 2016.
  25. ^ Hunter, Fergus; Morton, Adam (12 August 2016). "Coalition and Labor team up to clear out crossbench senators in 2019". Sydney Morning Herald. ISSN 0312-6315. OCLC 226369741. Archived from the original on 6 November 2016. Retrieved 12 August 2016.
  26. ^ Grattan, Michelle. "View from The Hill: Section 44 remains a constitutional trip wire that should be addressed". The Conversation. Archived from the original on 22 April 2019. Retrieved 22 April 2019.
  27. ^ Mizen, Ronald (31 August 2018). "Malcolm Turnbull formally resigns, forces byelection". The Australian Financial Review. Archived from the original on 31 August 2018. Retrieved 31 August 2018.
  28. ^ Murphy, Katharine (29 January 2019). "It's time to 'take out' environment ministers who fail on climate, says Oliver Yates". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 31 January 2019. Retrieved 31 January 2019.
  29. ^ Karp, Paul (28 January 2019). "Zali Steggall promises climate change fight with Tony Abbott in Warringah". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 31 January 2019. Retrieved 31 January 2019.